By Mike Paulenoff, www.MPTrader.com
My near and intermediate-term work is warning me that 3 session climbs from $850 to $911 (so far) in spot gold will turn out to be a trap (bull trap) and part of a near-term topping process just above $900, prior to another bout of corrective weakness that presses prices into the $800-$770 area in the weeks ahead. The upleg pattern off of the August 2007 low at $641.00 to the January 14th high at $914.00 exhibits the look of completion. In addition, the heretofore reliable 15-18 week cycle (low to low) is now in its 8th week. I expect a price peak in the 8th or 9th week of a 15-week cycle, so this retest of the highs is occurring "on schedule." If my work proves correct, then spot gold prices -- along with its ETF, the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) -- will reverse in the upcoming hours, and press towards a retest of $850 initially. What about the weakening dollar as a catalyst for much higher gold? My work on the euro argues that it is forming a top as well, with a lid at 1.5000.
Mike Paulenoff is author of www.MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking. Sign up for a Free 15-day Trial!


