MIKE PAULENOFF'S ETF TRADING DIARY
The long end of the bond market, and the TLT's (Barclay's 20+ Year T-bond, ETF), are getting hurt today, despite a climbing US dollar. The TBT's (Proshares Ultrashort T-bond, ETF) is benefiting from the price action.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the TBT action for the past 7 weeks or so does have the a base-like look to it, which is another way of saying that the bond market is creating a top, and that longer-term interest rates are moving up off of historical lows. However, to get any real traction going on the upside, the TBT must hurdle and sustain above key resistance first at 42.00 and more importantly above 43.00. A climb that sustains above 43.00 should trigger upside acceleration towards 48.00 thereafter and will (by definition) propel 10-year yield to a minimum of 2.90% and an optimal next target of 3.20%. At this juncture, only a decline that breaks below 38.40 will compromise the developing base pattern.
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