MIKE PAULENOFF'S ETF TRADING DIARY
My technical work in the iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) is very constructive, and points still higher on an intermediate term basis. My near term work has pivoted to the upside after a pullback from the 102.60 high on 1/09 into yest.'s low at 97.32. Why? Mr. Market perceives that there is "value" and relative safety in the corporate bond sector compared with the excess-supply, debt-beleaguered sovereign (US) Treasury sector.
Looking at the daily chart, the LQD spent the past two weeks correcting and digesting the prior powerful upmove off of its October low at 76.05 (to the Jan high at 102.60). This morning the price action indicates either that the correction is complete or that the first part of a more complex correction is complete, which means that a rally period should have started that will propel an already bullish price structure towards a retest of the prior high. The bottom line for me is that the current technical set-up presents a trading opportunity from the long side in the direction of the dominant trend.
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