MIKE PAULENOFF'S ETF TRADING DIARY
The large 6-week coil pattern in the Lehman 20-Year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) hit its 3rd coordinate on the high side last Friday at 100.00 (off of the 10/17 low at 93.02), and since has pulled back to this morning's low at 96.02, which represents a 60% correction of the 10/17-10/24 upleg. The strength off of 96.02 suggests strongly that the pullback is complete and is turning to the upside to enter a new upleg that will retest and likely hurdle resistance between 100.00 and 100.86 -- on the way to 102.00. Continued vulnerability of the overall stock averages to lower prices -- because they have not so far confirmed their October lows -- as well as fears about the balance sheets of GS and MS, among ongoing global recession and banking concerns, argue for another upside run for the TLTs.
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