Nov 16

Qs Angle of Ascent Steeper with Each Up-Leg

by Mike Paulenoff, Thu November 16th, 2006

The extraordinary chart of the Q's (condensed) shows that the angle of ascent has become more vertical with each new upleg, the most recent of which started at the 11/03 (pre-election) pivot low of 41.61. If my work is accurate -- that a new, more vertical upleg started at 41.61 -- then it is THAT level that represents critical support on any subsequent sigificant decline.

But let's notice the other "high-lows" that have been established since the 11/03 low: 11/08 @ 42.47; 11/14 @ 43.24, and today @ 44.01. If broken, are any of those plateaus significant? Right now, my work argues that a break below 43.24 will be a BIG WARNING SIGNAL that all is not well on the long side of the Q's.

Meanwhile, it is remarkable that the Q's are consolidating ABOVE 44.00 after this AM's new high at 44.39. The higher the price, the shallower the pullback, or so it seems ... UNTIL MR. MARKET DECIDES TO CLOBBER EVERYONE WHO IS SO, SO COMFORTABLE LONG UP HERE. When and where that is, well, who knows at this point. The pattern and underlying oscillators point to 45.20/50 next. BUT we need to keep one eye on 43.24 for a change in direction.

Chart

Mike Paulenoff is author of www.MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking. Sign up for a Free 15-day Trial!