Feb 28

Mid-Day Review of Oil, Gold and the Q's

by Mike Paulenoff, Wed February 28th, 2007

First things first.... my flip in the oil sector... Let me tell you that I am negative on the oil drillers -- Energy Select Sector SPDR (AMEX: XLE), but I am still relatively positive on continuation of the recovery uptrend in the price of oil -- US Oil Trust (AMEX: USO). The fact that I think the USO is vulnerable to probe lower-- and that I did not want to sit with it should prices press to 49.00 or lower, was a judgement call on my part (which I may regret).

As it turns out, the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), currently 66.33, also looks vulnerable near term to a pullback into the 64.00-63.50 support zone prior to the next loop to the upside.

Let's take a look at the hourly ProShares Ultra Short QQQQ (AMEX: QID), currently at 54.06, which suggests to me that the price structure, though it failed to hurdle critical 4 month resistance at 56.00, has nonetheless ratcheted up during the past week into a new, higher plateau within its base-building pattern between 50.00 and 55.50 (roughly). As I see the pattern developing, the QID's should consolidate yest.'s spike between 54.80 and 53.50 prior to the next attempt to break out to the upside...A sustained hurdle of 56.00 is needed to trigger upside acceleration towards 59-60.

Chart

Mike Paulenoff is author of www.MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking. Sign up for a Free 15-day Trial!