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What is fascinating about the enclosed daily charts of spot gold and nearby 10-year T-note futures is that both major trends remain very much intact and dominant despite the recent weakness. In fact, the weakness has NOT violated any meaningful prior pivot low -- in gold at the May 21 low of 1165.74 and in the T-notes at the June 21 low of 119-24.
Purely from a technical perspective, the 6.5% decline in gold and the 1.5% decline in T-notes appear to be "normal, minor" corrections within the larger uptrends. To listen to bond and stock market pundits claim that a mass exodus out of bonds and, to a lesser extent, out of gold will now drive equity prices much higher seems to belie what these charts are telling us -- that the flight to safety trade is undergoing a pause that refreshes, rather than a total reversal...at least for now.
For that reason we are long the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (NYSE: TLT) in our model portfolio.
Mike Paulenoff is author of www.MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking. Sign up for a Free 15-day Trial!
