Oil Could See New Down-Leg

Crude Oil-- attempted to rally in reaction to this AM's EIA Inventory Report, which showed a 5.9 million barrel draw in Crude (vs. -2.1 mb expected) but a 3.3 mb build in gasoline (vs. +200,000 expected) and a 2.7 mb build in distillates (v. -200,000 expected).

My attached 4 hour chart shows that the series of lower-highs off of the 5/22 high at 72.90 remains intact, with this AM's rally failing at 66.14 prior to pivoting to the downside to 65.43 currently. All of the action off of the 6/17 low at 63.40 into today's high at 66.14 has the right look of a completed recovery rally and hints that a new downleg could be about to begin just as OPEC heads into Friday's highly anticipated meeting.

Consensus calls for Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase output despite the objections from Iran and Venezuela.

If the chart is warning us about a directional move at this point, it is to the downside from what looks like a massive April-June distribution top formation that is putting increasing pressure on the May-June portion of the breakdown beneath 67.00. A break below 64.70/50 should trigger downside acceleration that breaks the June low at 63.40 in route to 60.00-58.00 thereafter.

Perhaps OPEC will turn out to be a more negative catalyst than most everyone suspects?

6 20 18 Oil 1 PM GIF
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