Rise and Shine, MPTraders! Tuesday August 13th, 2019

Consequential Economic Data Tuesday:  Small Biz Optimism Index... CPI... API Crude Oil Inventory Report... Later tonight, China data on FAI, Industrial Production, Retail Sales... 

-- Earnings Today:  TLRY, JD, EAT... See attached Calendar...

-- Hong Kong Airport remains closed for a second day, and continues to be a thorn in the side of China's President for Life, Xi Jinping, who is on the hot seat as the world looks on to see if he uses relentless or "minimal" force? My own sense is that Xi will opt for the former, to send a message to his HUGE domestic population, as well as to President Trump ("don't mess with me, Donald!"). Should such a scenario unfold, how will POTUS respond? I will be watching for the "Steve Bannon" eco-political confrontational approach to dealing with China, which will alert us to Trump's intention to destabilize communist control of that nation...

-- German Investor Confidence Survey (ZEW) falls to its lowest level since 2011 (see attached graphic), which dovetails with the chart of the "crash" in German auto production (see attached graphic). It is hardly surprising that the EWG technical set up remains weak and vulnerable to additional selling pressure as a reflection of the potential for German growth to falter into a recession. It is any wonder that German 10 year YIELD is minus 61 bps, and falling?

-- Argentina continues to reel under a major negative shift in confidence, and is one of the wobbly global financial dominoes definitely worth monitoring in the days ahead

-- US Small Biz Optimism Index, released early this AM, came in better than expected, which at the time, popped ES (E-Mini Sep. S&P futures) from -12 to -3, but the recovery bounce did not sustain (ES is now down 7.5 points in pre-market trading). In that the Small Biz Optimism Index (for July) is a lagging indicator, probably the respondents were much more encouraged about a China trade deal-- and an upward trajectory of the US stock markets-- than they are at the moment.... And let's keep in mind, that there are many other problems and signs that a roll over int confidence and the flight to safety is not over....

-- The Yield Curve continues to nosedive (10 yr-2 Yr) into single digits (see Chart)...

-- Gold Futures remain firm despite very overbought readings (see chart)...

-- Alternative Bitcoin continues to exhibit a potentially explosive pattern...

Stock indices up next...

Earnings Week 8 12 thru 8 16
8 13 German Zew Confidence Survey GIF
8 13 German Auto Production GIF
8 13 EWG Daily GIF
8 13 10-2 Yr Yield Curve GIF
8 13 Weekly Nearest Gold Futures GIF
8 13 BTC GIF
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