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Dow Relative Strength Versus Russell 2000 Nearing Short-Term Top


I have been long the Dow Diamonds (AMEX: DIA) vs. short the Russell 2000 Small Caps (AMEX: IWM) in our ETF Trading Diary model portfolio since last September, when the base pattern started to mature. Looking at the weekly relative strength chart of the two indices, the powerful two-year base pattern in the DIA/IWM spread has accelerated from its breakou level of 1.6400 to a high today of 1.7775 (so far), which is nearing my secondary target price of 1.8200. Although this upmove in the spread has a long way to go on the upside, my hourly work is warning me to expect a pullback from the 1.78-1.80 area into the 1.7200 support zone prior to the next upleg. Unless, of course, the markets go into a "freefall type of event," in which case the spread should continue to blow out to the upside towards 2.00.
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