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June-August Pattern in the e-SPU Argues for More Downside


Although the e-SPU appears to be racing out of the blocks to the upside after last week's Thursday-Friday plunge, the 5-8 point surge hardly has made a dent in the overall negative, technical picture displayed on the enclosed chart.

In other words, after carving out a sideways range from July 3 through July 31, the index violated and has sustained beneath the lower support plateau, at 1945/42, locking in a meaningful top formation.

The measured target zone for the downside potential off of the July top is 1902-1898, which has not been met (yet).

As of this moment, all of the action off of Friday's low at 1910.25 has the right look of a bearish-digestion period ahead of downside continuation towards the optimal downside target around 1900.

Only a sustained climb above 1945 will neutralize my still-bearish near-term outlook.

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