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10-Year Yield: On the Way to 2.50%-2.80%, or Finishing a Counter-Trend Multi-Month Rally?


In overnight trading, 10-Year YIELD continued to climb to a multi-month high at 2.42% prior to easing off a bit to 2.37%.

Let's notice that since its April 3 pullback low at 1.80% (after a decline from 2.26%), 10-year YIELD has climbed to this morning’s high at 2.42%-- a full 62 bps in exactly 8 weeks.

Let's also notice that from the Jan 30 low at 1.64% to the Mar 9 rally peak at 2.26%, YIELD climbed 64 bps.

My dotted red lines on today’s chart show the up-down-up path of YIELD that between Jan 30 and June 4 has produced two exactly equidistant uplegs of 64 bps each.

The fact that 1) today's high has registered a glaring lower-momentum high than it did on May 12 and 2) YIELD has backed off of its exact equidistant high at 2.42%, down to 2.35% during the last two hours in the pre-market session, represents preliminary, technical evidence that the Jan-Jun period is a completed "bear-market" recovery rally in YIELD rather than the initiation of a new and powerful upleg.

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