Recent Top Calls by Mike Paulenoff
Well before the Artificial Intelligence (AI) hysteria was unleashed this past Thursday by the shockingly powerful earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA) that reset expectations for the growth and revenue potential of AI, our technical pattern analysis of MRVL provided an early heads-up for MPTrader members.
Just after the start of the New Year, on January 9, Mike Paulenoff posted the following missive to MPTrader members about EWJ (Japanese Country Fund ETF):In my reading and research this weekend, my eyebrows did a bit of a backward roll when I saw the budding technical setup in EWJ.
On April 21, AAPL climbed to a new 8-month recovery high of 168.16, representing a 35% gain from the January 2023 low. We alerted MPTrader members to the new high in AAPL, but attached a yellow caution flag to the update:"AAPL continues to intrigue me technically because the stock hit a new multi-month recovery high at 168.16 on Wednesday -- 35% above its Jan 3rd low, but stalled right at its 15-month resistance line that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 168.
On March 20, I posted the following technical alert to MPTrader members:"FCX (Freeport-McMoRan)-- Technically, let's notice that FCX appears to be in the U-Turn phase after the completion of a 7-week 25% corrective period that successfully tested the 200 DMA last week. If the commodity complex has fully corrected its post-pandemic-inflationary spiral bull phase (think Crude Oil, down 46% from its 2022 highs), then FCX with its concentration of Copper, Gold, Silver, and Oil is poised for a resurgence of strength...
At the close of Q1, 2023, the big-cap technology names recorded the following very impressive 3-month gains: NVDA +90%, META+76%, TSLA+68%, CRM +50%, AAPL+27%, MSFT+21%, and GOOG+18%.
On January 24, we alerted MPTrader members to an opportunistic technical setup in NVDA, writing:"NVDA Bottom Line: When I zoom out for a view of all of the price action for the past 8 months, I can make a compelling case that a very powerful base-accumulation period and pattern have developed that is putting intense upward pressure on the 198-200 multi-month resistance-upside breakout zone that if hurdled, will trigger an intermediate-term projection to at least 218-224, and an outlier upside target
XLF (SPDR Financials ETF)-- During Friday's session we discussed the precarious technical setup exhibited by the Weekly XLF Chart, specifically the prospect of a weekly closing violation of the dominant up trendline from the March 2020 Pandemic Low. My attached Weekly Chart shows that XLF closed the week at 30.98, down 2%, well beneath the trendline. in addition, given the sharp negatively-sloped Weekly Momentum gauges (bottom of the chart), XLF is poised for downside continuation to test the October 2022 pivot low at 29.
Before the opening bell on Friday morning (3/10/23), amid the unfolding chaos surrounding the Silicon Valley Bank debacle and in the aftermath of the release of the February Jobs Report, Mike Paulenoff posted the following chart-based commentary for MPTrader members:"In the aftermath of the Jobs Report, the Dollar (DXY) is weaker, and Gold (GLD) is stronger.
Several times every trading session, we receive requests for our technical setup work in a particular stock or ETF from members in our discussion room Last Friday afternoon, MPT member Pawel asked for a review of AMZN. This was our response, posted to the coverage list:"From a BIG Picture perspective shown on my attached Weekly Chart, my pattern and momentum work indicate that AMZN established a significant corrective low at 81.
This past week Mike Paulenoff posted his chart work for members on the benchmark 10-Year YIELD and his go-to actionable longer-term, inflation-sensitive interest rate ETF, the TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF).
During earnings season, Mike Paulenoff scours his chart work for setups that might provide technical "hints" to MPTrader members regarding the probable directional market reaction to a particular company's quarterly report.Last Wednesday afternoon (Feb 15), prior to the company's earnings report, Mike posted his setup work on CSCO, noting:"CSCO reports earnings after the close.
Has the AI (Artificial Intelligence) movement shifted into high gear, and what to do about it?Believe it or not, it has been 24 years since Michael Lewis penned his influential Silicon Valley missive, The New New Thing, which described the budding internet revolution.
Over four months ago, on October 4, 2022, Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader members to potentially bullish rumblings in the Gold market (GLD ETF) in a brief room post titled, "What Am I Thinking About the Precious Metals and Mining Complex?"Mike wrote: "For the first time in who-knows-how-long, the stars just might be aligned for 1) Weakness in the US Dollar (DXY)... 2) a meaningful recovery rally in Gold (GLD).
Back on December 30, one of our MPTrader members (FJB) posted a comment that focused on the name ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT), the day after the CEO purchased 1.4 million shares at 8.28 in a show of confidence in his company's future. Within an hour of FJB's introduction of CHPT into our discussion forum, Mike Paulenoff posted his chart analysis.
This past Wednesday Jan 18, TSLA hit a recovery rally high at 137.50, nearly 36% above its multi-year bear phase low at 101.20 on Jan 6, and nearly 26% above the price TSLA was trading at on that same morning when Mike Paulenoff posted the following Coverage List heads-up to MPTrader members:"TSLA's new corrective low at 101.20 this AM looks like it ended the most recent downmove from 114.
Back on December 9, Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader members to the ongoing climb in XME (SP Metals and Mining ETF), and the potential for a much larger up-move based on his technical setup work, writing:"My attached Daily Chart spanning back to the Pandemic Low at 13.86 to the April 2022 high at 66.63 argues that all of the action for the past 6 months can be construed as an accumulation period and pattern in the aftermath of a significant 50% correction of the bull phase.
On November 7, exactly eight weeks ago, Mike Paulenoff posted the following heads-up to MPTrader members concerning a potentially opportunistic technical setup in BA (Boeing).
Last Monday morning (12/12/22), with TSLA reeling to the downside from suspected -- and later confirmed -- major sales of stock by Elon Musk likely to finance ongoing operations of TWTR, Mike Paulenoff posted the following cautionary analysis for MPTrader members:TSLA is pressing toward a full-fledged test of its 11/22 low at 165.
For our Top Call this week, there were a number of candidates that we could have focused on -- such as TLT, GDX, WPM, SILJ, and SPY -- all of which performed very close to Mike Paulenoffs technical setup expectations discussed throughout each trading day. In the final analysis, we decided to focus on Mikes analysis of META.
On November 8, just after TSLA (Tesla Inc) traded down a new multi-month corrective low at 185.75, Mike Paulenoff posted the following analysis to the MPTrader member discussion room:TSLA is getting closer to BOTH my next optimal downside target zone of 170-175 AND a condition of downside exhaustion within the downleg from the 8/16 high at 314.67.Bottom Line: As of this moment, TSLAs plunge today to a new big picture corrective low at 186.