Recent Top Calls by Mike Paulenoff
This past Monday, July 15, right after the opening bell, Mike Paulenoff cautioned our members about the technical setup in TSLA (Tesla), writing:"TSLA is in the grasp of a corrective period off of last Thurs (7/11) high at 271.00 that hit an initial low at 231.52 last Friday (7/12). The big rebound off of 231.52 to 262.72 during this AM's pre-market trading has the right look of an "intervening bounce" between two distinct corrective declines (the first being 271 to 231.52).
This week's selection for our Top Call -- VZ (Verizon Communications) -- is less a function of its recent success and more a reflection of Mike's technical setup work that projects gains in the days and weeks ahead. On June 17, one of our MPTrader members (FJB) alerted us to his fundamental work on VZ. After seeing his positive comments, Mike Paulenoff posted the following technical interpretation of the pattern setup:"... somewhere above 36.
On the morning of June 20, Mike Paulenoff posted a heads-up about AMD to MPTrader members, writing:"AMD has been upgraded this AM by Piper Sandler with a Target Price of 175. Piper reiterated its OverWeight rating and has made AMD its top big-cap pick for the remainder of 2024. Technically, AMD has its challenges and its work cut out for it to climb to Piper's 175 target. My attached 4-hour chart setup argues that for starters, AMD needs to climb above 158.
On the afternoon of May 7, 2024, ahead of earnings the next morning, this is what I discussed with MPTrader members about a forthcoming opportunistic technical set in UBER (Uber Technologies):UBER reports earnings tomorrow morning before the opening bell. My Big Picture setup suggests strongly that the bull phase that commenced in June 2022 at 19.90 still has unfinished business on the upside into the 90-100 target window.
This coming week is filled with consequential macro and micro "events," such as NVDA's 10 for 1 stock split, CPI, PPI, and TSLA's annual meeting, during which shareholders will vote to approve or reject Elon Musk's 2018, $56 billion pay package.Arguably, the most significant "event" for the technology sector, in particular, and for the major equity indices is Apple Inc.'s WWDC Conference, which begins tomorrow.
On Thursday May 23, with IWM trading at 203.19, Mike Paulenoff responded to an MPTrader member about his read on the IWM (Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF), writing:"Bottom Line: Compared to the SPY, IMW is terribly weak, but in isolation, from my BIG Picture pattern perspective, IWM is gearing up for a rip-roaring advance after current weakness exhausts itself.
During the pre-market hours of May 8th, 2024, this is what I posted about SLV (iShares Silver Trust) to our members at MPTrader.com:Time to focus on Silver (SLV) again for the initiation of a new upleg after the completion of a three-week pullback right to a successful test of 12-month support (see my attached charts), followed by an upside pivot reversal that has the right look of a resumption of the bull phase from October 2023.
This past Tuesday, April 30, Mike Paulenof posted a heads-up to MPTrader members about his technical setup on TLT (20+T-bond ETF) ahead of Wednesday's Treasury Refunding Announcement, the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference, and Friday's Jobs Report.Mike wrote: "I cannot help but be concerned about this morning's weak economic data (Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, Dallas Fed Survey).
On the Monday morning (10/09/24) after Hamas attacked Israel (10/07/24), Mike Paulenoff posted the following heads up for MPTrader members:Another "Crisis Opportunity" could be developing in RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies) after a prolonged correction finally exhibits signs of downside exhaustion, and because the various combatants around the globe need weapons systems and missiles, lots of missiles... Last is 72.62...RTX established a multi-month corrective low at 68.56 on the Friday before the attack, down 35% from the 104.91 high on 4/19/23.
On April 5, Mike Paulenoff discussed the following with MPTrader members about the significant negative behavior of the equity indices in general and the SPY (SP 500 Equity Index ETF), writing:"... Yesterday's nosedive in the price action left behind a Bearish Engulfing Candle in SPY, SPX, ES, et al... My attached Big Picture Chart of SPY shows the powerful, relentless Oct-Apr. advance from 409.21 to 526.
On March 13, amid a broad discussion about the emerging bull phase developing in the precious metals and miners, Mike Paulenoff posted this about WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals) to our MPTrader discussion room:From a more Silver-Gold perspective (if FCX is perceived to be Copper-centric), let's notice that WPM strength is pushing up against its near-term resistance line in the vicinity of 45.
Right after the opening bell on the morning of October 20, 2023, Mike Paulenoff posted the following GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) commentary to our MPTrader Discussion Room:"For all of the long-suffering Gold Bugs... As we speak, GLD is attempting to take out key 5-month resistance lodged between 181.20 and 184.40, which if successful and sustained, will point GLD to 188-190 next... Last is 183.88...
During the afternoon session of February 15, this is what Mike Paulenoff posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room about the technical setup in the oil service company SLB (Schlumberger):"This name in the oil service sector exhibits a well-demarcated 4-year bullish channel with the SLB price structure upturning off of the lower boundary line in the vicinity of 47.00 (the 2/13/24 low) amid a glaring double non-confirmation of the weakness into the lower channel line.
On December 26, 2023, fellow MPTrader member FJB asked me the following question: Mike - do you feel comfortable giving some of your top sectors for next year if you have any? This was my response:In order of preference based on my technical setup work:1- XLV (Healthcare)2- XLB (Materials)3- XLE (Energy)4- XLI (Industrials)5- XLF (Financials)As of the close this past Friday, 3/15/24, YTD results showed XLV +6.58%, XLB +6.15%, XLI +7.06%, XLF +8.54%, and XLE (Energy) leading all sectors, at +9.27%.
On February 23, Mike Paulenoff posted the following timely commentary about the bond market to MPTrader members:"Benchmark 10-year YIELD and TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF)-- I am getting initial, but very strong technical signals that the backup in 10-year YIELD from the late-March low at 3.78% to yesterday's (2/22/24) high at 4.35% is nearing exhaustion ahead of a rollover into another downleg within the larger downleg off of the October 2023 high at 5.00% (see my attached Daily Chart).
On October 27, 2023, Mike Paulenoff discussed his outlook for XBI (SPDR SP Biotech ETF) with our MPTrader members, writing:With the exception of a few months of recovery rally price action here and there, XBI remains in the grasp of a major bear phase off of its February 2021 peak at 174.79 into today's 17-month new low at 64.78. The $64,000 question is whether or not XBI is coming in for a successful test of its May-June 2022 lows at 61.78 and 62.
Nearly four months ago, on the morning of October 31, 2023, this is what I posted to our discussion room about NVDA (Nvidia Corp):NVDA pressed to a new 4-1/2 month low at 392.30 today, and ... the price structure is peering over the edge of a multi-month support plateau (396.50 to 407.64) that if sustained, will leave NVDA vulnerable to downside continuation toward filling the up-gap left behind on 5/25/23 from 305.40 to 366.35. So far, NVDA has bounced off of 392.30 and has just crossed above 400.
Nine weeks ago, on December 13, Mike Paulenoff responded to an MPTrader member's inquiry about the relatively newly IPO'd restaurant group CAVA (CAVA Group), writing:Fellow member "Blue" asked for a "read" on CAVA, but this is an interesting name in the restaurant group that I think warrants a more extensive chart post for anyone looking to diversify into a consumer-sensitive, budding chain of Mediterranean cuisine fast-food locations along the lines of the Chipotle (CMG) model...
This past Monday (Feb 5), one of our MPTrader members inquired about Disney (DIS): "Is Mickey and the gang making a comeback?" Our response: "Technically, the answer is Yes! We can make a compelling argument that DIS has carved-out a 9-month rounded base formation (Inverse Head Shoulders, anyone?) that for the last several days has been digesting its January gains from 88.69 to 97.93 perhaps ahead of Wednesday's (12/07/24) catalyst: Quarterly Earnings.
Way back on October 27, 2022— 1 year, 4 months ago, this is what I posted about SHOP (Shopify) to the MPTrader member discussion room:My attached BIG Picture Daily Chart shows the relentless bear phase that gripped the stock from its November 2021 ATH at 176.29 to the October 13, 2022 low at 23.63, amounting to an 86.5% decline in the value of the stock during the past year! That said, my pattern and momentum work argue strongly that SHOP established a very significant near and intermediate-term low at 23.