Recent Top Calls by Mike Paulenoff
Back on November 12, 2024, fellow MPTrader member "Rayray" wrote the following when ARCH (Archer Aviation) was trading at $4.83:Mike, as you may recall I have been an active follower of ACHR. I no longer have a position that I trade off of and am on the sidelines watching a move that I should have participated in . That said, is this the move to $9.00 that has been on the table for a while ?... My analysis: NO!...
On the morning of Tuesday, November 12, 2024, I posted the following Heads-Up to MPTrader members concerning my DIS (Disney) analysis ahead of earnings:DIS (Disney) reports earnings on Thursday morning. Technically, DIS approaches Earnings in strong near-term technical condition that argues for a positive reaction to earnings. As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 94.80, DIS points higher to 105.10/40, and if taken out, then to 113-115... Last is 100.25...
On September 20, 2024, fellow MPTrader member Bloom asked Mike Paulenoff to look at his chart setup in Upstart Holdings (UPST). This is what they discussed in Mike's post to our Discussion Room in its entirety:UPST (Upstart Holdings)... It is NO coincidence that when the Fed initiated its rate HIKE cycle in March 2022, it coincided with the steep, contractionary, prolonged bear phase in cloud-based AI lender UPST.
Each Earnings Season (one is in progress as we speak), I analyze my technical setups on individual stocks to see if they provide enough evidence to issue a "highly confident" directional call to MPtrader members. In other words, what is my chart work telling me about the likelihood of a bullish or bearish investor reaction to Earnings?Suppose I apply the same approach to Tuesday's presidential election.
Last Monday afternoon (October 21), Mike alerted MPTrader members to a Goldman Sachs upgrade of optical products retailer Warby Parker (WRBY) to Buy from Neutral. Goldman attached an 18.00 target price to the stock. At the time of Mike's post to members, WRBY was trading at 17.55 in reaction to the GS upgrade, up 6% from the prior close, and just 2.5% from Goldman's 12-month target price.
On the afternoon of March 13, 2024, I posted the following heads-up to MPTrader members about important price action in WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals), my go-to ("favorite") name for Silver Mining within the larger Precious Metals Mining Complex:From a silver-gold perspective, let's notice that WPM strength is pushing up against its near-term resistance line in the vicinity of 45.80.
Over one month ago, on Monday morning, 9/09/24, I posted the following NVDA update for our members:My near-term pattern work makes a compelling argument that the corrective downleg from the 8/16 high at 131 is nearing downside exhaustion and completion in and around 100 (Friday's low was 100.95). That said, unless and until NVDA climbs above 106.30 to 108.
On August 27, 2024, I reviewed my near and intermediate-term technical setup on copper (gold, silver, oil) producer FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) for MPTrader members, writing:My attached Daily Chart shows the 30% correction from the May 2024 high to the August 2024 low, which my pattern work argues ended the retracement of the first upleg of a new bull phase in FCX that began at the 10/23/23 low of 33.08 and ended at the 5/20/24 high of 55.24. The August 2024 upmove from 39.08 (8/05/24) to 46.
On August 5, hours before its after-market earnings report, Mike Paulenoff posted a bullish alert on AI-juggernaut PLTR, writing:"Bottom Line Technically: As long as any forthcoming weakness on a closing basis remains above key support lodged between 19.60 and 21.50, PLTR has the right look of nearing the completion of the correction from its 7/08/24 high at 29.83, and the initiation of another advance that will extend the upside potential off of a two-year base-accumulation setup."The stock, trading at 23.
Three hours before the July Fed 31, 2024 (FOMC) meeting, I posted the following chart commentary about my technical setup work on 10-year Treasury YIELD and its actionable longer-term Treasury bond ETF, the TLT (20+ Year T-bond, ETF):Heading toward Fed Time, 10-year YIELD and TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF) certainly appear to be anticipating lower interest rate news or innuendos from the FOMC statement (guidance) and Jay Powell in his post-meeting press conference.
On August 15, with XLV (Healthcare SPDR, ETF) approaching Mike Paulenoff's target zone (noted in an April 18th post), Mike responded to an MPTrader member's question about whether it was "time to sell and find something with more potential?" Mike wrote: "My short answer: no, it is not yet time to sell (although I will never dissuade anyone from taking profits and from ringing the cash register). My pattern and momentum work argue that upside potential extends from 156 to 161.
On August 6th, when UBER was trading 62, this is what Mike Paulenoff discussed with MPTrader members about the stock's technical setup in the immediate aftermath of the company's quarterly earnings report:"UBER... produced stellar earnings, albeit a bit light on next quarter's bookings. The stock is up 5.9% in pre-market trading within a near-term setup that argues yesterday's spike low at 53.25 ended a 35% correction off of the March high at 82.14.
At 10:45 AM ET on Friday July 26, 2 hours 15 minutes after the release of important PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) inflation data, this is what Mike Paulenoff discussed with MPTrader members about SPY (SPDR SP500 ETF):"If I have a concern today it is the unfilled up-gap left behind from last eve's 4 PM ET close at 538.32 to the low of the AM session so far at 541.25.
On June 24, 2024, I posted the following chart-based commentary about PFE (Pfizer, Inc) to the MPTrader discussion room:PFE (Pfizer) has the right look of a setup that is on the verge of entering a central, bullish price thrust from within a December-June rounded bottom formation. Only a failure to push up through and close above the 200 DMA, now at 28.94, followed by a decline that breaks last week's low (6/14) at 26.87 will Neutralize my currently bullish bias... Last is 28.27...
This past Monday, July 15, right after the opening bell, Mike Paulenoff cautioned our members about the technical setup in TSLA (Tesla), writing:"TSLA is in the grasp of a corrective period off of last Thurs (7/11) high at 271.00 that hit an initial low at 231.52 last Friday (7/12). The big rebound off of 231.52 to 262.72 during this AM's pre-market trading has the right look of an "intervening bounce" between two distinct corrective declines (the first being 271 to 231.52).
This week's selection for our Top Call -- VZ (Verizon Communications) -- is less a function of its recent success and more a reflection of Mike's technical setup work that projects gains in the days and weeks ahead. On June 17, one of our MPTrader members (FJB) alerted us to his fundamental work on VZ. After seeing his positive comments, Mike Paulenoff posted the following technical interpretation of the pattern setup:"... somewhere above 36.
On the morning of June 20, Mike Paulenoff posted a heads-up about AMD to MPTrader members, writing:"AMD has been upgraded this AM by Piper Sandler with a Target Price of 175. Piper reiterated its OverWeight rating and has made AMD its top big-cap pick for the remainder of 2024. Technically, AMD has its challenges and its work cut out for it to climb to Piper's 175 target. My attached 4-hour chart setup argues that for starters, AMD needs to climb above 158.
On the afternoon of May 7, 2024, ahead of earnings the next morning, this is what I discussed with MPTrader members about a forthcoming opportunistic technical set in UBER (Uber Technologies):UBER reports earnings tomorrow morning before the opening bell. My Big Picture setup suggests strongly that the bull phase that commenced in June 2022 at 19.90 still has unfinished business on the upside into the 90-100 target window.
This coming week is filled with consequential macro and micro "events," such as NVDA's 10 for 1 stock split, CPI, PPI, and TSLA's annual meeting, during which shareholders will vote to approve or reject Elon Musk's 2018, $56 billion pay package.Arguably, the most significant "event" for the technology sector, in particular, and for the major equity indices is Apple Inc.'s WWDC Conference, which begins tomorrow.
On Thursday May 23, with IWM trading at 203.19, Mike Paulenoff responded to an MPTrader member about his read on the IWM (Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF), writing:"Bottom Line: Compared to the SPY, IMW is terribly weak, but in isolation, from my BIG Picture pattern perspective, IWM is gearing up for a rip-roaring advance after current weakness exhausts itself.
