Recent Top Calls by Mike Paulenoff
On December 26, 2023, fellow MPTrader member FJB asked me the following question: Mike - do you feel comfortable giving some of your top sectors for next year if you have any? This was my response:In order of preference based on my technical setup work:1- XLV (Healthcare)2- XLB (Materials)3- XLE (Energy)4- XLI (Industrials)5- XLF (Financials)As of the close this past Friday, 3/15/24, YTD results showed XLV +6.58%, XLB +6.15%, XLI +7.06%, XLF +8.54%, and XLE (Energy) leading all sectors, at +9.27%.
On February 23, Mike Paulenoff posted the following timely commentary about the bond market to MPTrader members:"Benchmark 10-year YIELD and TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF)-- I am getting initial, but very strong technical signals that the backup in 10-year YIELD from the late-March low at 3.78% to yesterday's (2/22/24) high at 4.35% is nearing exhaustion ahead of a rollover into another downleg within the larger downleg off of the October 2023 high at 5.00% (see my attached Daily Chart).
On October 27, 2023, Mike Paulenoff discussed his outlook for XBI (SPDR SP Biotech ETF) with our MPTrader members, writing:With the exception of a few months of recovery rally price action here and there, XBI remains in the grasp of a major bear phase off of its February 2021 peak at 174.79 into today's 17-month new low at 64.78. The $64,000 question is whether or not XBI is coming in for a successful test of its May-June 2022 lows at 61.78 and 62.
Nearly four months ago, on the morning of October 31, 2023, this is what I posted to our discussion room about NVDA (Nvidia Corp):NVDA pressed to a new 4-1/2 month low at 392.30 today, and ... the price structure is peering over the edge of a multi-month support plateau (396.50 to 407.64) that if sustained, will leave NVDA vulnerable to downside continuation toward filling the up-gap left behind on 5/25/23 from 305.40 to 366.35. So far, NVDA has bounced off of 392.30 and has just crossed above 400.
Nine weeks ago, on December 13, Mike Paulenoff responded to an MPTrader member's inquiry about the relatively newly IPO'd restaurant group CAVA (CAVA Group), writing:Fellow member "Blue" asked for a "read" on CAVA, but this is an interesting name in the restaurant group that I think warrants a more extensive chart post for anyone looking to diversify into a consumer-sensitive, budding chain of Mediterranean cuisine fast-food locations along the lines of the Chipotle (CMG) model...
This past Monday (Feb 5), one of our MPTrader members inquired about Disney (DIS): "Is Mickey and the gang making a comeback?" Our response: "Technically, the answer is Yes! We can make a compelling argument that DIS has carved-out a 9-month rounded base formation (Inverse Head Shoulders, anyone?) that for the last several days has been digesting its January gains from 88.69 to 97.93 perhaps ahead of Wednesday's (12/07/24) catalyst: Quarterly Earnings.
Way back on October 27, 2022— 1 year, 4 months ago, this is what I posted about SHOP (Shopify) to the MPTrader member discussion room:My attached BIG Picture Daily Chart shows the relentless bear phase that gripped the stock from its November 2021 ATH at 176.29 to the October 13, 2022 low at 23.63, amounting to an 86.5% decline in the value of the stock during the past year! That said, my pattern and momentum work argue strongly that SHOP established a very significant near and intermediate-term low at 23.
During the pre-market hours on Monday January 8, less than 48 hours after a new Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 Max-9 aircraft experienced a potentially catastrophic structural mid-air "event" that subsequently compelled the FAA to ground all Boeing 737 Max 9 jets, Mike Paulenoff posted the following technical commentary for MPTrader members:"BA (Boeing)... has to deal with yet another issue with its 737 Max 9 airliner, which experienced a potentially tragic physical malfunction on an Alaska Airlines flight Friday night.
On the morning of January 9, 2024, with IWM (Small Cap Russell 2000 ETF) trading at 194.72, this is what I discussed with MPTrader Members:... If IWM cooperates and climbs into the 199.50-201.50 target zone, I am expecting the index to run out of gas and roll over into a secondary corrective down leg that retests and breaks below 190.57, pressing into the 186.50-188.50 target zone to complete the larger correction off of the 12/28/23 high at 205.03...
On Wednesday, January 10, 2024, right at the opening bell, this is what we discussed about my near-term technical setup in MSFT (Microsoft):MSFT is about to emerge from a bullish 6-week high-level digestion period after hitting its 11/29/23 ATH at 385.50. MSFT needs to climb and sustain above 377.20/70 to trigger upside continuation that points to a retest and hurdle of 385.50, and then to 395-400 thereafter. Only a sudden sharp downside reversal that presses MSFT beneath 6-week support from 366.00 to 362.50 will wreck the setup.
On the morning of October 16, 2023, Mike Paulenoff posted the following analysis of TEVA (Teva Pharmaceuticals) to our Coverage List and our Discussion Room:This is how I see TEVA's technical setup near term: As long as TEVA is trading below 9.00, it will remain vulnerable to a still deeper correction of its May-Sep upleg from 7.09 to 10.72. In the absence of a climb from current levels at 8.73 above 9.00 on a sustained basis, my optimal key nearest-term corrective target zone is 8.40 down to 8.
On November 7, 2023, we posted to our MPTrader members about the bullish technical setup in the e-commerce used car business, CVNA (Carvana Co), writing:"CVNA exhibits a HUGE 19-month base accumulation period and pattern that has significant upside potential if and when the stock recovers to and takes out heavy resistance lodged between 50.60 and 57.20... My pattern work in CVNA from the Dec. 2022 low at 3.35 indicates that the advance to its July 2023 high at 57.
On October 2, 2023, I posted the following heads-up to MPTrader members about the technical setup in the derivative Bitcoin ETF BITO (Proshares Bitcoin Bull ETF):BITO (Proshares Bitcoin Bull ETF)-- For those of you who think like I do that "there IS something to this Bitcoin thing," the multi-month technical setup in BITO indeed, is intriguing because of its upside potential. My suggestion for those so inclined is to own BITO here (14.
Eight weeks ago, Mike Paulenoff discussed the budding technical setup and upside breakout in CRWD (CrowdStrike Holdings) with our MPTraders members, writing:"CRWD has followed the bullish scenario we discussed in late August, and in fact, today (10/06/23) has thrust above 5 months of resistance to new recovery high territory at 176.32. Although my next optimal upside target zone is 190-200, the BIG picture setup points to 230-240 thereafter... Last is 174.86...
On Monday morning, November 13, 2023, a full 5 trading sessions before the approaching November Options Expiration (OPEX) (11/17/23), I posted my chart-based commentary for our members:SPY-- Considering that Friday is November Option Expiration, where are the "magnetized strike prices" as we start OPEX week? Based on my attached Hourly Chart, the magnetized strike price zone spans from 436 to 441. Should SPY take out the upside barrier of 441, then the follow-through outlier magnetized target could be as high as 450 before or on Friday.
On October 23, 2023, ten days before the November 1st FOMC meeting and policy statement, I posted the following commentary about the downward-spiraling TLT (20+ year T-bond ETF):My attached 4-hour Chart of TLT shows that the relentless and near-vertical downtrend that commenced at the beginning of August from around 100 hit a new long-term low at 81.92 this AM, positioning it in my intermediate-term optimal downside target zone from 80 to 82.
On the afternoon of September 25, Mike Paulenoff posted a warning signal to MPTraders members about the developing acute oversold condition in RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies), writing:"RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies) hit a new multi-month corrective low of 71.02, down 33% from the 4/10/23 post-pandemic High at 106.02. Although RTX has violated my optimal target window of 73-75, the stair-step corrective pattern off of the 4/19/23 high at 104.
On October 3, Mike Paulenoff posted the following "Heads Up!" about GLD (SPDR Gold Trust, ETF) for MPTrader members: "GLD has pressed to an important technical inflection window from 169.50 down to 166.30, from where I will be expecting corrective downside exhaustion off of the 5/04/23 high at 191.36, and new buying interest. From a nearer-term perspective, given the acute oversold but CONFIRMED Momentum reading of 17.16 an hour ago, my preferred scenario argues for another loop down that marginally violates today's low at 168.
On September 28, 2023, with NVDA trading at 429.31, I told MPTrader members that my work is warning me about a complex technical setup that argues for a prolonged corrective scenario prior to a resumption of dominant uptrend strength. I posted the following:My near-term pattern and momentum work argue that since its 9/21/23 corrective low at 409.
This past Friday morning, October 13, Mike Paulenoff posted a technical warning signal to MPTrader members, writing:"Heads Up! META climbed to a marginal new post-Nov. 2022 rally high at 330.54 yesterday, but failed to follow through to the upside, and instead has reversed into a bout of weakness that is approaching key initial support. "As long as nearest support from 313.50 down to 311.