Recent Top Calls by Mike Paulenoff

On May 6, 2025, during the final hour of trading, and before AMD was scheduled to report quarterly Earnings that evening, I posted the following analysis to our MPTrader Discussion Room:AMD reports Earnings after the close... The only conviction I can derive from my pattern work is that the 4/08/25 low at 76.48, which represented a 66% correction from the March 2024 high at 227.30, has the right look of a significant low that completed a major bear phase.

On April 22, 2025, I posted the following analysis about my technical setup work in XBI (SPDR SP Biotech ETF):XBI (SPDR SP Biotech ETF)-- Could it be? Could it be that the near-40% correction from the 11/11/24 multi-year high at 105.47 to the 4/09/25 low at 66.66 fully discounted all the bad news in this sector?  From a BIG Picture perspective, my attached Daily Chart shows this month's spike low into the vicinity of the previous major corrective low-zone starting in May 2022.

In the early afternoon on April 11, this was my note to our members:"IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF)-- From a trading perspective, anyone who is in sync with the Bitcoin setup might consider owning IBIT (iShares Bitcoin ETF) against a stop below its 4/07/25 low at 42.98 (see my attached Daily Chart below)...

Last Thursday (4/17/25) afternoon, ahead of NFLX (Netflix) post-close earnings report and the three-day Good Friday holiday weekend, we discussed the technical setup and whether or not the NFLX pattern was positioned to react positively to the news : The NFLX setup heading into Earnings later today is favorable for upside continuation above the prior two rally highs at 993.45 (4/15) and 998.70 (3/25), but not to a new ATH above 1064.

Last Thursday afternoon (4/10/25), the commentary below is what I discussed with MPTrader members about my Big Picture technical setup work: Tomorrow is the final session of the week. We get some big bank Earnings and PPI before the open, and more than likely, one or more POTUS televised events that undoubtedly will move markets one way or other. Technically, tomorrow's (Friday) close will be important to my Weekly Chart Work.

At the beginning of last week, fellow members Rayray and GordonGekko asked for my technical setup work on BX (Blackstone Inc). This is what we discussed on the morning of March 25, 2025:My attached Daily Chart shows the November 2024 to mid-March 2025 correction (-32%) followed by the recovery rally from 135.60 to 153.18.

On March 10, 2025, fifteen minutes before the closing bell and Oracle's forthcoming Earnings Report, below was the analysis I posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room about ORCL:"... My preferred scenario indicates a negative reaction to the news that sends ORCL reeling to test important support at 139.50-141.20-- where ORCL MUST reverse to the upside to avert triggering still lower projections into the 118-123 (back the truck up) target window... Last is 149.32"...

Last October 21, 2024, I alerted MPTrader members to a Goldman Sachs upgrade of optical products retailer Warby Parker (WRBY) to Buy from Neutral. Goldman attached an 18.00 target price to the stock. At the time of my post to members, WRBY was trading at 17.55 in reaction to the GS upgrade, up 6% from the prior close, and just 2.5% from Goldman's 12-month target price.

On February 26, 2025, just 30 minutes before NVDA (Nvidia Corp) was scheduled to release its highly anticipated and potentially consequential Quarterly Earnings Report, I reiterated my most recent analysis uploaded before the opening bell. This is what I posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room:Technically, my Big Picture setup work on NVDA argues that the 2/03/25 low represented the END of a major correction that originated at NVDA's "orthodox" price high of 152.89 on 11/21/24-- the session following the company's November 20, 2024 Earnings report.

Before the market opening on February 4, 2025, hours after Palantir Technologies (PLTR) reported stellar Earnings, this is what I discussed with MPTrader members:In reaction to Earnings, PLTR has sustained strength above my "outlier" target zone of 96 to 100, which requires new upside pattern parameters. My optimal price path from atop the post-Earnings, 25% upmove points to an immediate objective of 105-08, followed by a contained pullback into the 95 area, ahead of a thrust toward 115-118 thereafter... Last is 103.50...

On January 6, 2025, this is what I discussed with MPTrader members about the Chinese equity names--Alibaba (BABA) in particular:BABA-- For anyone who wants an outlier contrarian play for the first two-quarters of the Trump Agenda, let's consider BABA.  Purely from a technical perspective, I can make a compelling technical argument that the 12/20/24 low at 81.5 ended the larger correction off of the Oct 2024 upleg (from 71.80) high at 121.06. To confirm the low, any weakness must hold support at 81.50-83.

Never a dull moment since January 20, 2025! This weekend, POTUS imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and 10% on China, which go into effect on Tuesday. From an initial market perspective, tariff trade war fears have triggered a risk-off reaction from Bitcoin-- the only highly liquid weekend market that can give us insight into what to expect for Sunday evening and Monday morning trading.

On December 27, 2024, with META trading at 595.26, this is what I posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room in response to a member's question:My pattern work from the October 2023 low at 279.40 to the December 2024 ATH at 638.40 (+128%) tells me that META is at a technical crossroad now... META's most recent upleg from the 11/19/24 low at 547.71 to the 12/11/24 ATH at 638.40 has the "right look" of a completed advance.

At the close of trading on December 18, 2024, this was my final thought posted to our discussion room at MPTrader.com:ES (March 2024 E-mini SP 500)-- Stating the obvious: Today's reaction to the FOMC Rate CUT (!!) inflicted serious near-term technical damage to the dominant, post-August uptrend... Last 5960.75...Thirty minutes after the close on December 18, 2024, I followed up with this commentary for MPTraders:My preliminary "conclusion" about today's outsized 3.

On December 20, 2024, this is what we discussed about the relentless four-week correction from NVDA's ATH at 152.89 (11/21/24) to a low at 126.35 on 12/20/24:Three Times is a Charm? For the third time this week, NVDA spiked down into the lower reaches of my optimal corrective target window from 132 to 125-- this AM representing the latest spike low at 126.35-- and for the third time, buyers emerged, propelling NVDA higher to 130-132. As we speak, NVDA is trading at 131.

On December 13, 2024, with NVDA trading at 132.54, down 13.3% from its All-Time High at 152.89 (11/21/24), and bearing down on a critical 8-week support plateau at 131-132, this is what I posted to MPTraders:NVDA Update: Approaching key support in the vicinity of 132 that if violated and sustained, could unleash the downside potential derived from a two-month top formation (everyone sees the Head and Shoulders formation by now).

Friday afternoon, fifteen minutes before the closing bell in the equity indices, this was my parting comment about Bitcoin:Heading into the weekend, the technical setup argues against holding shorts in Bitcoin... no?...

Many of you have been members of MPTrader for years, perhaps decades (I have been providing MPTrader.com analysis since February 2003!). Rarely do I take a victory lap about my stock, ETF, and market calls, largely because I have always thought my work should speak for itself, which obviates the need to bloviate and beat my chest to stroke my ego. At my core, I am a market nerd and Geek, not a slick-talking marketer (for better or worse).

Back on November 12, 2024, fellow MPTrader member "Rayray" wrote the following when ARCH (Archer Aviation) was trading at $4.83:Mike, as you may recall I have been an active follower of ACHR. I no longer have a position that I trade off of and am on the sidelines watching a move that I should have participated in . That said, is this the move to $9.00 that has been on the table for a while ?... My analysis: NO!...

On the morning of Tuesday, November 12, 2024, I posted the following Heads-Up to MPTrader members concerning my DIS (Disney) analysis ahead of earnings:DIS (Disney) reports earnings on Thursday morning. Technically, DIS approaches Earnings in strong near-term technical condition that argues for a positive reaction to earnings. As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 94.80, DIS points higher to 105.10/40, and if taken out, then to 113-115... Last is 100.25...