XBI (SPDR Biotech ETF) is in Our Technical Crosshairs this Week for a Significant Secondary Low Within a Major Bottoming Scenario

by Mike Paulenoff

May 11, 2025 • 8:56 AM EDT

On April 22, 2025, I posted the following analysis about my technical setup work in XBI (SPDR S&P Biotech ETF):

XBI (SPDR S&P Biotech ETF)-- Could it be? Could it be that the near-40% correction from the 11/11/24 multi-year high at 105.47 to the 4/09/25 low at 66.66 fully discounted all the bad news in this sector? From a BIG Picture perspective, my attached Daily Chart shows this month's spike low into the vicinity of the previous major corrective low-zone starting in May 2022. In addition, the April 2025 low at 66.66 coincides with a 360 trading day low-to-low cyclical periodicity that appears to be right on schedule. Lastly, my hourly pattern work (not shown here) indicates that the rally from the 4/09/25 low at 66.66 to today's high at 7780 exhibits bullish form, and as such is precisely the type of price behavior a prospect XBI bull wants to see after a major corrective low. Bottom Line: My near and intermediate-term technical work argues that the 4/07/25 low at 66.66 represents the first coordinate in a developing very significant and powerful bottom in XBI. In a "perfect entry scenario," I am looking to enter XBI at 70-72 if able in the days ahead, with stops placed 1% beneath the April low... Last is 77.36...

Fast-forward almost three weeks, we see (on my attached Daily Chart) that the initial XBI upmove from the 4/07/25 corrective and cyclical low at 66.66 peaked at 84.21 (+26%) on 5/02/25. Since then-- all of last week, XBI has been in the grasp of a pullback that has retraced about 50% of the prior upmove.

My near-term pattern work argues that XBI still has some unfinished business to the downside into the 74 to 71 support window (amended from my original support/pivot window of 70 to 72), where I will be expecting renewed buying interest to pivot the price structure to the upside, leaving behind a "stepped-up" secondary low within a potentially powerful cyclical bottom formation.

As long as any acute weakness is contained above the April 2025 low-zone from 70 down to 66.66, XBI's post-April technical setup is progressing according to a potentially extremely bullish scenario that argues for a climb above the May high at 84.21 to challenge and hurdle the down-sloping 200 DMA, now 92.42...

XBI will be on my radar screen in the hours and days directly ahead... Last (5/09/25 Close): 76.39...

Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking. Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!

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