XBI (SPDR Biotech ETF) is in Our Technical Crosshairs this Week for a Significant Secondary Low Within a Major Bottoming Scenario
by Mike Paulenoff
May 11, 2025 • 8:56 AM EDT
On April 22, 2025, I posted the following analysis about my technical setup work in XBI (SPDR S&P Biotech ETF):
XBI (SPDR S&P Biotech ETF)-- Could it be? Could it be that the near-40% correction from the 11/11/24 multi-year high at 105.47 to the 4/09/25 low at 66.66 fully discounted all the bad news in this sector? From a BIG Picture perspective, my attached Daily Chart shows this month's spike low into the vicinity of the previous major corrective low-zone starting in May 2022. In addition, the April 2025 low at 66.66 coincides with a 360 trading day low-to-low cyclical periodicity that appears to be right on schedule. Lastly, my hourly pattern work (not shown here) indicates that the rally from the 4/09/25 low at 66.66 to today's high at 7780 exhibits bullish form, and as such is precisely the type of price behavior a prospect XBI bull wants to see after a major corrective low. Bottom Line: My near and intermediate-term technical work argues that the 4/07/25 low at 66.66 represents the first coordinate in a developing very significant and powerful bottom in XBI. In a "perfect entry scenario," I am looking to enter XBI at 70-72 if able in the days ahead, with stops placed 1% beneath the April low... Last is 77.36...
Fast-forward almost three weeks, we see (on my attached Daily Chart) that the initial XBI upmove from the 4/07/25 corrective and cyclical low at 66.66 peaked at 84.21 (+26%) on 5/02/25. Since then-- all of last week, XBI has been in the grasp of a pullback that has retraced about 50% of the prior upmove.
My near-term pattern work argues that XBI still has some unfinished business to the downside into the 74 to 71 support window (amended from my original support/pivot window of 70 to 72), where I will be expecting renewed buying interest to pivot the price structure to the upside, leaving behind a "stepped-up" secondary low within a potentially powerful cyclical bottom formation.
As long as any acute weakness is contained above the April 2025 low-zone from 70 down to 66.66, XBI's post-April technical setup is progressing according to a potentially extremely bullish scenario that argues for a climb above the May high at 84.21 to challenge and hurdle the down-sloping 200 DMA, now 92.42...
XBI will be on my radar screen in the hours and days directly ahead... Last (5/09/25 Close): 76.39...
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
On the morning of August 6th, I posted the chart below after seeing Fundstrat's Tom Lee discuss his CEO position in BMNR (BitMine Immersion Technologies), and the fact that BMNR was accumulating a large cache of Ethereum (ETH) that will serve as an ETH Treasury holding similar to the Bitcoin model used by Microstrategy's Michael Saylor. At the time, BNMR had climbed from 31.85 to 33.70, which piqued my attention technically:"BNMR ... once again is putting upward pressure on the 34.
Nearly two months ago, I posted my technical setup on TMO (Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc.) to alert MPTrader members to a potentially significant upside reversal pattern. Here is my commentary from June 3, 2025:My attached Big Picture Daily Chart shows the major bear phase from the 9/10/24 ATH at 627.88 to last week's (5/23/25) low at 390.66 (-38%). Most interestingly, all of the price action from the 4/09/25 low at 409.
Every person on the planet is now aware that early on Saturday night, June 21st, 2025, the U.S. military attacked and severely damaged (destroyed?) Iran's nuclear sites and presumably their ability to produce nuclear materials needed to create a WMD.
Last Wednesday afternoon (6/11/25), with META circling 700 after establishing a 4-month new post-April 2025 recovery rally high at 708.87, this is what we discussed about the current technical setup: Just a heads up that my pattern work is warning me that the 52% upmove from the 4/07 low at 467.31 to today's (6/11) high at 708.87 has the right look of a completed, overextended, overbought, unconfirmed rally peak that leaves the price structure vulnerable to a correction of some magnitude.
On May 6, 2025, during the final hour of trading, and before AMD was scheduled to report quarterly Earnings that evening, I posted the following analysis to our MPTrader Discussion Room:AMD reports Earnings after the close... The only conviction I can derive from my pattern work is that the 4/08/25 low at 76.48, which represented a 66% correction from the March 2024 high at 227.30, has the right look of a significant low that completed a major bear phase.