Latest News at MPTrader
Below is a sampling of posts and articles by Mike Paulenoff, who produces over a dozen pieces of analysis on a range of markets and stocks each day for members in the live room.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! February 19, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:Economic Data Today: For the most part, stronger Labor data than expected, stronger Manufacturing Data than expected, stronger Business Conditions and Manufacturing Orders than expected, overlaid on declining inflation... all of which-- to the extent that we believe this round of data-- to this observer, seems Goldilocks-ish, no? (Continued below)...Goldilocks or not, this "miserably" range-bound circle jerk of a market is what we encounter every day.
At the current pre-market price of 79.27, NFLX is down 41% from the ATH, as the price structure nears a significant technical inflection level in and around 75.00, which represents the Fibonacci 50% retracement-support level of the entire bull phase from the May 2022 low to the June 2025 high.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! February 12, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: The more things change, the more they stay the same! ES remains confined within a wide three-month sideways pattern, the boundaries of which are demarcated in gray on my attached Daily Chart. To break out to the upside, ES needs to chew or thrust its way through and above consequential resistance lodged between 7012 and 7045.
Typically, Rising Wedge formations END with a thrust out of the top of the Wedge, but fail to follow through on the upside, and instead reverse sharply to the downside, leaving behind a major Bull Trap Reversal that inaugurates a meaningful percentage correction of the most recent upleg, in this case from the 11/21/25 pivot low at 650.85 to the forthcoming new ATH, let's say at 700 to 703 (See my attached Daily Chart).
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! February 5, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: First Up, a look at the pattern setups in Bitcoin before my second update on GOOG, AMZN, and ES setups heading into today's session...Three views: My 4-Hour Set Up shows the breach of 70,000 that is accompanied by an extremely oversold condition that in the past has correlated with an emergent rally.
Economic Data: ADP Monthly Employment gained 22,000 versus 45,000 expected, and 37,000 in December, suggesting that the labor market remains relatively weak, which plays into Trump, Bessent, and Warsh's insistence that interest rates should be lower...UBER Earnings Reaction: UBER reported mixed results that initially pressed the stock to a pre-market spike-low at 69.50 from yesterday's close at 77.93 (-11%), where buyers swooped in to propel UBER above unchanged.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! January29, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:-- There are two trading days remaining in January... -- All else being equal, the January Seasonal Tendency is for SPX strength today and tomorrow into month-end (see Seasonal Graphic below)...-- Headline Risk this AM: President Trump holds a Cabinet Meeting at 11 AM ET, which could be open to the press again...-- Notable Earnings After the Close: AAPL-- Geopolitical Risk Rhetoric is Climbing Rapidly concerning an imminent Persian Gulf War.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! January 27, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:-- There are four trading days remaining in January...-- The Fed begins a two-day meeting. The FOMC Monetary Policy Statement will be released on Wednesday at 2 PM ET... At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell will hold a Press Conference, which could move markets...-- Notable Earnings Today: UNH, BA, GM, UPS, TXN, RTX... Tomorrow: MSFT, TSLA, IBM, ASML...
ES weakness during the three-day weekend, precipitated by the fallout from "The Great Disruptor," President Trump's "threats" to take Greenland by force, and to engage in battle with NATO et al, has inflicted meaningful technical damage to the dominant post-11/21/25 uptrend. My attached Daily Chart shows ES has sliced beneath key support clustered in and around 6950/60, which includes the 8 Day EMA, the 20 Day SMA, and the dominant up trendline.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! Pre-Market Update: Yesterday afternoon, President Trump threw cold water on an imminent U.S. military attack on Iran, which immediately triggered an algorithmic headline-triggered short-covering rally that persisted into the close, and in so doing, propelled ES above its 20 DMA ahead of the closing bell, averting a problematic, potentially negative technical setup.On the contrary, yesterday's early weakness to a two-day low at 6923 ended a 1.6% pullback from the ATH at 7036.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! January 13, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:-- JPM Earnings: Mostly a beat (see CNBC analysis below), but considering JPM was trading 65% above its April 2025 low (see my attached 4-Hour Chart), the reaction to the news has been a bit muted (as we discussed late yesterday here). As we speak, JPM is up 0.2%.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! January 8, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: The Elephant in the Room this AM is Friday!Why? Because tomorrow morning, the consequential December Jobs Report will be released at 8:30 AM ET, and will put the health of the labor market into focus, as well as forthcoming Fed policy.
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! January 7, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:The major market setups I am watching closely for directional purposes as the post-April 2025 advances approach a "final upside thrust": ES, SPY, QQQES-- As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained within or above support from 6920 down to 6873, my Big Picture pattern setup argues for upside continuation beyond the 10/30/25 ATH at 7013.50 to an optimal upside target zone of 7100-7130... last is 6986.25... (continued below my ES chart)...
Here is the text-corrected version of my first update... as I get another cup of heavily caffeinated coffee!Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! January 6, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: Thursday and Friday of this week are potentially important sessions...If Thursday's close is above 6845.50 on the Cash SPX, then the first 5 trading sessions of 2026 will be positive. According to Tom Lee, since 1950, the First 5 Day Rule has yielded powerful results and accuracy.
MU (Micro Technologies) knocked the cover off the ball last night in its Earnings Report (see Seeking Alpha snippet below), which has goosed the stock 12.5% as we speak. My attached 4-Hour and Daily Charts indicate that MU needs to take out and close above 264.75 to trigger a higher projection to 295-300. In the absence of a close at new ATHs, MU's near-term setup argues for a range-bound period between 240 and 260.
Benchmark 10-year YIELD has declined from 4.12% to 4.11% in reaction to the cooler-than-expected CPI data, which might not seem like much, but from a chart perspective, YIELD is pressing directly toward key near-term support at 4.10% that, if violated, will argue for downside continuation to 4.00%... Last is 4.11%...
ES-- You probably are aware by now that CPI Core and Annualized data came in cooler than expected (see Data Table below my chart), which has goosed ES futures from 6804.75 just prior to the data release, to an intraday high at 6838.50 so far.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! December 16, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Economic data and the reaction of the markets...Below is the data list... This AM's focus will be on the Non-Farm Payrolls figure for November, which The Street expects to come in at +50,000... As for the market, in overnight trading, the pajama traders attempted to break ES to the downside, pressing the index to a low of 6832.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! December 9, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- Today is the 236th trading day of 2025... 15 trading days remain after today into year-end, which is not much time for the underperforming equity managers...-- Tomorrow we get the FOMC policy decision, statement, and Powell press conference... According to the Kalshi betting market, the odds of a rate cut are at a historical high at 94%... BUT, according to the latest CNBC Survey, only 45% think the Fed should cut!...
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! December 2, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: -- Quantitative Tightening Officially Ended yesterday. As fellow member Blue alluded to in his late Monday post (18:37 time), the Fed's program of balance sheet reduction that began in June 2022, and which shrunk the Fed's portfolio by $2.4 trillion, has ended. The Fed's balance sheet still is roughly $6.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! November 25, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- News emerged in the wee hours this AM that Mark Zuckerberg (META) purportedly is negotiating to buy Google Chips (TPUs) instead of NVDA chips, which has triggered algorithmic selling in NVDA (-4%) in pre-market trading. My attached 4-Hour Chart shows NVDA weakness is pressing toward a full-fledged retest of last Friday's pre-market spike low at 172.93-- if violated and sustained on a closing basis, will project downside continuation toward 164-167 next...
The stronger-than-expected September Payrolls data elicited a positive reaction from the Equity Indices. On top of the NVDA-induced ES vertical spike from 6680 to 6740, the index spiked to a high of 6772.75 so far, a full 2.7% above Tuesday's 5.2% corrective low from the ATH...
Good Thursday Morning, MPtraders! November 20, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: -- NVDA rules! The company reassures investors via its very strong revenue estimate. Jesen reports Q3 earnings per share of $1.30, beating expectations for $1.25. Q2 sales came in at $57.0 billion, easily surpassing forecasts for revenue of $54.8 billion. Nvidia is firing on all cylinders, and AI is clearly driving growth...
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! November 18, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: More of the same stair-step selling pressure that is threatening to invalidate my bullish Coil formation, which will morph the correction off of the ATH into a deeper, possibly total retracement of the upleg from the October 10 pivot low at 6540.25 to the October 30 ATH at 6953.75. The $64,000 question: Can or will the index (ES) regain some upside traction ahead of tomorrow eve's NVDA Earnings report?...
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! November 13, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- The Government is up and running again, but who knows when to expect "official economic data" to be released for October, if ever? Hopefully, Jay Powell and the FOMC can otherwise arrive at a reasonable conclusion about the health of the economy, the labor market, and inflationary pressures before the December 10th Fed Meeting...
