Latest News at MPTrader
Below is a sampling of posts and articles by Mike Paulenoff, who produces over a dozen pieces of analysis on a range of markets and stocks each day for members in the live room.
ES-- The index climbed to a new post-April high at 6270.75 in an attempt to break out of its three-session high-level bullish digestion pattern, but there has been no upside follow-through. Instead, ES has rolled over into a minor (so far) pullback. As long as any additional weakness is contained above 6225, the high-level bullish digestion pattern will remain intact with a target zone of 6285-6300, but a break of 6225 will morph the pattern into a near-term top projecting to 6180/85...
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! July 2, 2025-- My apologies for running late this AM (It has been one of those mornings)...
TSLA-- Tesla is expected to report its Q2 2025 vehicle delivery numbers this week, likely on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. The attached Big Picture Daily Chart shows the post-April rally that has propelled TSLA from $ 214.25 to $ 367.71 (+72%), representing a 60% recovery from the bear phase that occurred from December to April 2025, during which TSLA's value decreased by 56%.From the recent recovery rally high at 367.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! June 26, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Including today, there are three trading days remaining in June, Q1, and H1, 2025 (Bullish "Window-Dressing" and of End Period Mark-Ups already in progress?)... Economic Data Today: Durable Goods... GDP Q1 (Final Estimate), 2025... Weekly Jobless Claims... Pending Home Sales... Fed Head speeches from Daly, Barkin, Barr, and Hammack... White House Presser (1 PM ET)... Trump presser (4 PM ET)... NKE Earnings after the close...First up this AM, amid a +0.
Spot Gold is down 2% in the aftermath of the Israel-Iran conflict...What now?From the Big Picture pattern perspective exhibited by my attached Monthly Chart, my preferred scenario argues for a rangebound market above 3120 and below 3520 for 1 to 3 weeks ahead of another upleg that propels Gold to new ATHs... As for the influence of the US Dollar, my attached Weekly Chart indicates that unless and until DXY recovers and sustains above 101.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! June 17, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET)... Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (10 AM ET)... -- Day #6 of the Israel-Iran War... Will the U.S. threaten to enter the conflict to secure an Iranian surrender, probably the most politically and geopolitically desirable scenario for POTUS? Or will the Iranians hold out to the bitter end to try to force the U.S.
The U.S. Dollar (DXY) is under intense downside pressure this week, primarily due to the cooler-than-expected inflation data on CPI and PPI. When the bean counters take out the lagging data from rent, the inflation numbers ahead could be much closer to or below the Fed's 2% target.
ES-- I am getting worried. My attached Big Picture Daily Chart of ES shows today's pop to a new post-April new high at 6016.50, but the new high resides within what looks like a developing Rising Wedge Formation (see thick black demarcation lines atop the April-June upleg). A Rising Wedge Formation usually precedes a condition of upside exhaustion and is the final "bullish" formation within a mature uptrend pattern.
Based on the technical setups exhibited by my attached charts of NEM (Newmont Mining), GDX (Gold Mining ETF), WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals [Silver]), and DXY (US Dollar Index), the most impressive and promising setup from my technical perspective is NEM, which has pivoted to the upside from my preferred WEEKLY Target Window (27.50 to 30.50) and has the right look of the completion of an unconfirmed major corrective phase from its April 2022 high at 86.37 to last week's low at 29.42.
XLE (Energy SPDR ETF)-- Bottom Line: As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 87.60, XLE points to 93.00-93.50 next... Upside acceleration should commence sooner than later today if XLE maintains early strength above 89.00... Last is 89.
GLD is up over 1% in reaction to the improved, but not ice-cold inflation data. Technically, as long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 173.80, GLD points higher, to my next optimal target zone of 179 to 181... Last is 176.
For a better view of ES, my Daily Chart setup shows ES preserving its near-term uptrend pattern in the aftermath of the nasty down-spike to 3954, followed by a resumption of strength that points to a challenge of formidable resistance lodged from the Upper BBnd Line at 4007 to the down-sloping 200 DMA, now at 4028... Last is 4009, after making a second run at 4017 to retest the intraday spike high a few minutes ago...
ES-- In the aftermath of in line but improved CPI data, the bulls and bears are battling around unchanged after initial, knee-jerk algo-inspired spikes, first to the upside to 4019.75, which smacked into the Upper BBnd Band, and then to the downside in a spike to 3954, which was absorbed by important near term support from 3973 down to 3945. MJP Reaction: after the near term overbought condition is worked off in the upcoming hour(s), ES should make a run at the 4019.
Good Morning, MPtraders! Wednesday, January 11, 2023-- Pre-Market Update: We are about 24 hours from the release of the December CPI Report, which WILL BE a VERY CONSEQUENTIAL DIRECTIONAL MARKET CATALYST. Why? Because over the last 24-48 hours, The Street's "whisper number" about the headline Month-Over-Month CPI could be NEGATIVE, down from a peak of +1.3% recorded for the month of June, and the first time a monthly figure is negative since the Pandemic in Q1, 2020!.
