Latest News at MPTrader
Below is a sampling of posts and articles by Mike Paulenoff, who produces over a dozen pieces of analysis on a range of markets and stocks each day for members in the live room.
ES-- In my final update yesterday, I made a snarky comment that the index teased us by recovering impressively off of the intraday low, and by closing above the 20 DMA, but it was likely a teaser ahead of Friday's speech from Fed Chair Powell.This AM, ES is trading at 6389, backing away from yesterday's close at 6413.25, which places it again beneath the 20 DMA (6408), but still above yesterday's intraday low at 6362.
ES hit an overnight low at 6409, just above the up-sloping 20 DMA, now at 6408. The differential between the price structure and the consequential directional MA has been squeezed to near-zero. Technically, this means that ES must pivot to the upside off of the MA to avert triggering a near-term Downside Reversal Signal in my work.
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! August 20, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: TGT Earnings (see analysis below)... FOMC Minutes (2 PM ET)... Jackson Hole Symposium begins leading up to Fed Chair Powell's Friday 10 AM ET speech... ES probes the 20 DMA... TGT reported Earnings this AM, and announced a new CEO, neither of which has supported the price so far. My Big Picture technical set up argues that the Bear Phase that commenced after the ATH of 268.
My Big Picture work after the PPI Report shows zero change in the setup that argues for upside continuation, albeit, perhaps after a few hours of high-level "PPI churning." Last is 6471.50 off of an intraday PPI low at 6453.25...
Benchmark 10-Year YIELD:Humor me, please! In theory, isn't the long end of the curve supposed to react most acutely to signs of inflation? Where are the Bond Vigilantes this morning? Yesterday, YIELD settled at 4.24%. After this AM's shockingly hot July PPI report, 10-year YIELD is 4.26%! Technically (see my attachd Daily chart), for YIELD to regain upside traction, it needs to climb and sustain above heavy, consequential resistance from 4.31% (the down-sloping 20 DMA) to 4.35% (the down-sloping 50 DMA).
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! August 13, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: The slow-mo, but relentless equity market melt-up continues this AM, with ES clawing its way to higher ATHs at 6488.50, in route to my measured near-term upside target zone at 6530-6560 derived from the thrust out of the post-7/31 Triangle formation.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! August 7, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Where to begin this AM? There is a lot going on, which has become the rule, rather than the exception, during the extremely activist Trump Administration...-- POTUS announces 100% tariffs on semiconductor imports, except for those companies that "manufacture or commit to manufacturing in the U.S., such as AAPL...-- Late yesterday, from the Oval Office, AAPL announced an additional $100 billion investment in the U.S.
My Big Picture setup in ES is still focused on the price structure's juxtaposition with the 20 DMA. If my near-term pattern work that indicates the strength yesterday into this AM represents an "intervening" rally ahead of another corrective decline, then ES will again CLOSE beneath the 20 DMA, now at 6350, which will reinstate a preliminary downside reversal signal (that was neutralized by yesterday's upmove). Let's watch the ES-20 DMA differential-- now 11.5 points-- as today's trading unfolds... Last in ES is 6361.50...
When POTUS ended his 40-minute CNBC interview, ES was trading at 6366.50 compared to 6371.75 just before the start of the interview...As for Benchmark 10-Year YIELD, my attached Daily Chart shows the three-week nosedive from 4.49% (7/17/25) to 4.20% (8/04/25). During the next 1-3 days, the inability of YIELD to reverse off of 4.20%, and then take out resistance at 4.25%, will argue for downside continuation toward a challenge of the significant support line from the September 2024 low at 3.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! July 31, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Today is the final trading day of July. Tomorrow begins August, which historically and seasonally has been the second-to-worst-performing month of the year with an average return of minus 0.3% since 2015. That said, July ain't over yet! In pre-market trading, ES is up nearly 1% (Nasdaq futures are up 1.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! July 29, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: There are three trading days remaining in July... Still to come later this week:Fed Meeting, U.S. Jobs Report, Trump Tariff Deadline, and Earnings From Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta...As for ES this AM, it appears to be following my "instincts" described late yesterday: "my instincts tell me that ES could be rangebound between 6400 and 6450 until the next directional catalyst (FOMC, Trade Deal, PCE Inflation data)...
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! July 24, 2025-- There are six trading days remaining in July... The elephant in the room today is President Trump's visit to and comments during his hour at the Federal Reserve at 4 PM ET... I wonder if Fed Chair Powell will be there to greet him? (LOL)... GOOG reacted positively to Earnings and is following the technical script we discussed late yesterday.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! July 22, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Another subdued (bullish) overnight session in the equity futures indices... Neither Treasury Secretary Bessent's FOX interview nor former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's CNBC interview impacted the markets this AM, perhaps with the exception that Bessent's comment "I see no reason for Powell to step down now" can be attributed to ES trading from -5 pts to +3 points around 8 AM ET...
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! July 15, 2025: Pre-Market Update: JPM beats but reacts sluggishly so far, NVDA pops 4.5% as Trump Administration enables chip exports to China, and ES spikes to a new ATH in reaction to the chip news, ahead of this AM's CPI Report (see expectations below)...(FinancialJuice)JPM beat The Street's estimates on Earnings and Revenue, and raised guidance for fiscal year 2025 net interest income. In reaction to the good news, JPM initially spiked to 295.00 from Monday's close at 288.70 (+2.
Silver (SLV) and Silver Mining ETF (SIL) climbed to new pre-open highs this AM. SLV hit a 13-year new high at 35.55 while SIL hit a 5-year new high at 51.74...As long as any forthcoming acute weakness in SLV is contained above key support at 33.50-34.00, the dominant uptrend will remain intact, and poised for upside continuation to 36.10/40 next en route to my optimal upside target window of 37.00... Last is 35.09...
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! July 10, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: MP (Materials Corp)!My persistent bullish technical outlook in anticipation of MP's upside breakout from a two-year base-accumulation period and pattern has achieved most of its upside potential this AM, with a major announcement about the company's partnership with the Department of Defense (see explanation below)... What a wild and wonderful trip it has been! See my charts below the explanation...
TSLA Update-- FWIW, Dave Portnoy of Barstool Sports fame (among other things), was all over social media yesterday about his purchase of $10 million of TSLA stock in the downdraft created by yesterday's 7%-8% plunge in reaction to CEO Elon Musk's new preoccupation with the formation of a new political party (America Party). After hitting a four-week low at 288.77 yesterday morning, TSLA has clawed its way to the 297-298 area this AM.
MP (Materials Corp.)-- Fellow member Jack asked for a technical update which has pretty much followed the bullish script that we have been discussing for the past several months, but the swings certainly have made MP a rollercoaster experience. My attached 4-Hour Chart shows MP's two-week correction from 39.10 (6/18/25) to this AM's spike low at 29.62, which briefly violated my preferred next optimal target support window from 32.00 down to 30.50. The ability of MP to CLOSE above 30.
TSLA-- The drama surrounding Elon Musk never ends, and with each new act in the soap opera, TSLA suffers. Over the long weekend, Musk decided to create a new political party: America Party, which has as its mandate a centrist political orientation that advocates for fiscal responsibility, reduced national debt, free speech, pro-American policies, secure borders, etc.
ES-- The index climbed to a new post-April high at 6270.75 in an attempt to break out of its three-session high-level bullish digestion pattern, but there has been no upside follow-through. Instead, ES has rolled over into a minor (so far) pullback. As long as any additional weakness is contained above 6225, the high-level bullish digestion pattern will remain intact with a target zone of 6285-6300, but a break of 6225 will morph the pattern into a near-term top projecting to 6180/85...
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! July 2, 2025-- My apologies for running late this AM (It has been one of those mornings)...
TSLA-- Tesla is expected to report its Q2 2025 vehicle delivery numbers this week, likely on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. The attached Big Picture Daily Chart shows the post-April rally that has propelled TSLA from $ 214.25 to $ 367.71 (+72%), representing a 60% recovery from the bear phase that occurred from December to April 2025, during which TSLA's value decreased by 56%.From the recent recovery rally high at 367.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! June 26, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Including today, there are three trading days remaining in June, Q1, and H1, 2025 (Bullish "Window-Dressing" and of End Period Mark-Ups already in progress?)... Economic Data Today: Durable Goods... GDP Q1 (Final Estimate), 2025... Weekly Jobless Claims... Pending Home Sales... Fed Head speeches from Daly, Barkin, Barr, and Hammack... White House Presser (1 PM ET)... Trump presser (4 PM ET)... NKE Earnings after the close...First up this AM, amid a +0.
Spot Gold is down 2% in the aftermath of the Israel-Iran conflict...What now?From the Big Picture pattern perspective exhibited by my attached Monthly Chart, my preferred scenario argues for a rangebound market above 3120 and below 3520 for 1 to 3 weeks ahead of another upleg that propels Gold to new ATHs... As for the influence of the US Dollar, my attached Weekly Chart indicates that unless and until DXY recovers and sustains above 101.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! June 17, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET)... Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (10 AM ET)... -- Day #6 of the Israel-Iran War... Will the U.S. threaten to enter the conflict to secure an Iranian surrender, probably the most politically and geopolitically desirable scenario for POTUS? Or will the Iranians hold out to the bitter end to try to force the U.S.
