Latest News at MPTrader

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  May 19, 2026: What's on my mind this morning (besides appreciating that I was NOT called for Jury Duty for today!):-- Two trading sessions until Wednesday eve's NVDA Earnings Report...-- The NVDA Earnings reaction (Jensen making the rounds on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business) on Thursday will take the markets into Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve swearing-in ceremony on Friday afternoon...

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  April 29, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: --- Today is Fed Day (2 PM and 2:30 PM ET)...--- Mag7 Earnings Day (MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOG after the close)...--- But the elephant in the room this morning is the continued sharp climb in the nearby June Crude Oil price to a 3-week high at 103.82, which represents a 31.5% upmove since the April 17th pullback low at 78.97 (from the 4/07/26 high at 114.

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  April 28, 2017-- Pre-Market Update:  ES climbed to a higher ATH at 7223.25 overnight before geopolitics once again interrupted the 4-week vertical assault from the 3/31/26 low at 6353.25 (+13.7%):(FinancialJuice)June Crude Oil popped from under 98.00 to a two-week high at 101.85 so far (see my attached Oil Chart), and now points to 103.30 to 106.60 next. To regain negative traction, June Crude needs to reverse below 98.00... Last is 100.90...ES reacted negatively to the news and to the up-spike in Crude Oil.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF) Update:  My preferred scenario remains viable. As long as any strength is contained beneath resistance at 102.39 (last week's March-April rally high) and 103.40 (my line-in-the-sand technical resistance level), my pattern and momentum work indicate that GDX is vulnerable to a bout of weakness that presses the price structure toward a retest of the March corrective low-zone from 85 down to 79, prior to my expectation of the emergence of a new, powerful advance... Last is 94.97-95.08...

ES (Emini SP 500) -- Fifteen minutes after yesterday's close, after a pre-close nosedive from 7130 to 7085 in reaction to news that the impending negotiation session was called off, implying that the War would resume, President Trump announced another extension to the ceasefire, which pivoted the index to the upside, reclaiming all the late-session lost territory, and then some (7085 to 7140). From a near-term pattern perspective, my attached Hourly Chart shows that despite the 0.

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  April 15, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:-- The overbought market was positioned for a Wednesday pullback, but President Trump's comments (see below) and the attendant knee-jerk algorithmic buy programs attached to his comments put a floor under any weakness in pre-market trading.

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  April 9, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: -- The range of positive, expected, or feared outcomes and the propaganda from the belligerents has created extreme, but increasingly plausible tail risks unlike I have seen in my four decades navigating markets... Hopefully, the tail risks will narrow rather than widen further after this Saturday's face-to-face U.S.

Emotions vs. The Big Picture Technical Indicator ConditionsWith each passing hour and headline, the stock indices react instantaneously to the prospect of EITHER purported total destruction of the Iranian nation-state OR something much less devastating that presumably paves a conciliatory path forward. No one knows what to expect during the 9-1/2 hours until the deadline time. Extremes: Total annihilation vs Ceasefire/Surrender?  Will either or both extremes open the Strait of Hormuz? The Gray Area:  Everything in-between the extremes...

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  April 2, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:  Today is the final session of the week. Market's are closed tomorrow for Good Friday... Tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET, the Gov't releases the March Jobs Report (to be discussed later this AM)...-- If President Trump intended to imbue the financial markets with confidence about an end to the Iran War, well, whatever he said or did not say had the opposite effect...Front month May NYMEX Crude Oil rocketed from 97.

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  March 31, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:-- Another Trump Tweet gooses equity index futures prices at around 7:15 AM ET:I think the implication of his comments indicates that the U.S. is oil self-sufficient and can walk away from the Iran War with the Strait of Hormuz closed, leaving most other countries in Europe and Asia, in particular, scrambling to procure their own oil.

May Crude Oil Update:  What a difference a day makes!Yesterday morning at this time, May Crude was circling 87.00.  Fast-forward 24 hours, we see May Crude circling 94.50 (+8.6%), and pushing up toward a challenge of the dominant resistance line off the March 8th post-war high at 118.00 that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 96.50 as we speak.

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  March 19, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:  Looking at all the red price action across my screens this AM, extending yesterday's relentless decline, the weakness reinforces my growing sense that ES is in the grasp of a liquidation event, a protection and preservation of capital operation during a period of constant uncertainty that continues to rotate through sectors and asset classes...ES is down 38 points and 0.6%, but more importantly, is pressing dangerously into the March 2026 corrective low-zone from 6634.

Cash Bitcoin and IBIT Update:  On February 5, 2026, when BTC was trading at 69,322, this is what we discussed about my Big Picture Weekly Chart Setup:My Weekly BTC setup indicates that the 70,000 down to up-sloping 200 Week MA, now at 58,085, is the potential bull-bear-battle Turn Zone that will be played out over a 4 to 6 week period, likely the requisite timeframe for WEEKLY Momentum to bottom, create a positive divergence, and then turn up...

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  March 12, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:It's tiring, isn't it? Investors and traders are hostage to constant headline risk from the Oil market specifically, and from the Trump Administration in general... Here is the current Oil vs. ES setup, expressed by my attached 15 Minutes Charts...What is the message this morning?  -- As long as April Crude Oil is north of $90.00, the setup off yesterday's pullback low at $82.

Cash Bitcoin and MSTR Update: Truth be told, the pattern carved out by BTC from its Feb. 2026 low at 60,070 continues to "impress me" as exhibiting counter-trend form, and as such, a recovery rally that is entering its 6th week. That said, however, strength from current levels of 70,700 that hurdles and sustains above the recent high at 74,100 will argue for an upside extension of the counter-trend upmove toward 80,500-82,500.

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  March 10, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:  -- Crude Oil and ES are still top of mind:The near-term charts shown below indicate that a sustained climb in April Crude above 91.50 will trigger upside continuation to 95.00-97.50, and perhaps to 100 again.

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  March 5, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:-- The War enters Day #5... -- ES is circling the mid-section of a multi-month range amid an impending historical directional shift from negative to positive (See chartwork below)...-- Oil Prices climbed to a new "wartime" high at $78.09 overnight, threatening to emerge from a multi-year range...

April Crude Oil needs to close under $73/bbl to trigger an initial technical "warning" that the Dec 2025-present advance from $54.63 to $77.50 is exhausted. In the absence of a close under $73.00, April Crude points next to $79-$82, indicating that a wider war premium is being built into the price of oil for nearest delivery... Last is $77.30...

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  March 3, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: What Now?  As we enter day 4 of the US/Israeli-Iran War, we have to ask ourselves if the markets are facing more or less uncertainty. At 4 PM ET yesterday, recovery market behavior suggested that Mr. Market was starting to see through the Fog of War.This morning?  Not so much!Technically, the intraday pattern carved out yesterday exhibited bullish form. As long as yesterday's pivot low at 6768.

Good Sunday Morning, MPTraders!  March 1, 2026: Special Update: Are there any market indications on Sunday afternoon that might provide directional hints about tonight's stock index, oil, and gold openings? Bitcoin is the only currently trading risk-on vs. risk-off 24/7 market that might be informative about market direction after Friday eve's U.S. and Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran, followed by Saturday's announcement that the Ayatollah Khamenei and many of his ruling leadership were killed.

What Am I Thinking?  Block Inc-- Symbol XYZ -- The Labor Market, Benchmark 10-Year Treasury YIELD, and the Fed...Block Inc's CEO Jack Dorsey tells the WSJ this AM, "Intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company." In a letter to shareholders, Dorsey "alluded to artificial intelligence tools as the reason for the cuts in a letter to shareholders.

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  February 24, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:  ES, AMD, HIMS, Earnings Releases, and the President's State of the Union Address...There are four trading days remaining in February...ES remains in the confines of a multi-month sideways range that has developed a lower boundary (support plateau) at 6750 to 6800, juxtaposed against an upper boundary (resistance plateau) from 7000 to 7045.

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  February 19, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:Economic Data Today:  For the most part, stronger Labor data than expected, stronger Manufacturing Data than expected, stronger Business Conditions and Manufacturing Orders than expected, overlaid on declining inflation... all of which-- to the extent that we believe this round of data-- to this observer, seems Goldilocks-ish, no? (Continued below)...Goldilocks or not, this "miserably" range-bound circle jerk of a market is what we encounter every day.

At the current pre-market price of 79.27, NFLX is down 41% from the ATH, as the price structure nears a significant technical inflection level in and around 75.00, which represents the Fibonacci 50% retracement-support level of the entire bull phase from the May 2022 low to the June 2025 high.

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  February 12, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: The more things change, the more they stay the same!  ES remains confined within a wide three-month sideways pattern, the boundaries of which are demarcated in gray on my attached Daily Chart. To break out to the upside, ES needs to chew or thrust its way through and above consequential resistance lodged between 7012 and 7045.