Latest News at MPTrader
Below is a sampling of posts and articles by Mike Paulenoff, who produces over a dozen pieces of analysis on a range of markets and stocks each day for members in the live room.
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! January 7, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:The major market setups I am watching closely for directional purposes as the post-April 2025 advances approach a "final upside thrust": ES, SPY, QQQES-- As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained within or above support from 6920 down to 6873, my Big Picture pattern setup argues for upside continuation beyond the 10/30/25 ATH at 7013.50 to an optimal upside target zone of 7100-7130... last is 6986.25... (continued below my ES chart)...
Here is the text-corrected version of my first update... as I get another cup of heavily caffeinated coffee!Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! January 6, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: Thursday and Friday of this week are potentially important sessions...If Thursday's close is above 6845.50 on the Cash SPX, then the first 5 trading sessions of 2026 will be positive. According to Tom Lee, since 1950, the First 5 Day Rule has yielded powerful results and accuracy.
MU (Micro Technologies) knocked the cover off the ball last night in its Earnings Report (see Seeking Alpha snippet below), which has goosed the stock 12.5% as we speak. My attached 4-Hour and Daily Charts indicate that MU needs to take out and close above 264.75 to trigger a higher projection to 295-300. In the absence of a close at new ATHs, MU's near-term setup argues for a range-bound period between 240 and 260.
Benchmark 10-year YIELD has declined from 4.12% to 4.11% in reaction to the cooler-than-expected CPI data, which might not seem like much, but from a chart perspective, YIELD is pressing directly toward key near-term support at 4.10% that, if violated, will argue for downside continuation to 4.00%... Last is 4.11%...
ES-- You probably are aware by now that CPI Core and Annualized data came in cooler than expected (see Data Table below my chart), which has goosed ES futures from 6804.75 just prior to the data release, to an intraday high at 6838.50 so far.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! December 16, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Economic data and the reaction of the markets...Below is the data list... This AM's focus will be on the Non-Farm Payrolls figure for November, which The Street expects to come in at +50,000... As for the market, in overnight trading, the pajama traders attempted to break ES to the downside, pressing the index to a low of 6832.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! December 9, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- Today is the 236th trading day of 2025... 15 trading days remain after today into year-end, which is not much time for the underperforming equity managers...-- Tomorrow we get the FOMC policy decision, statement, and Powell press conference... According to the Kalshi betting market, the odds of a rate cut are at a historical high at 94%... BUT, according to the latest CNBC Survey, only 45% think the Fed should cut!...
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! December 2, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: -- Quantitative Tightening Officially Ended yesterday. As fellow member Blue alluded to in his late Monday post (18:37 time), the Fed's program of balance sheet reduction that began in June 2022, and which shrunk the Fed's portfolio by $2.4 trillion, has ended. The Fed's balance sheet still is roughly $6.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! November 25, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- News emerged in the wee hours this AM that Mark Zuckerberg (META) purportedly is negotiating to buy Google Chips (TPUs) instead of NVDA chips, which has triggered algorithmic selling in NVDA (-4%) in pre-market trading. My attached 4-Hour Chart shows NVDA weakness is pressing toward a full-fledged retest of last Friday's pre-market spike low at 172.93-- if violated and sustained on a closing basis, will project downside continuation toward 164-167 next...
The stronger-than-expected September Payrolls data elicited a positive reaction from the Equity Indices. On top of the NVDA-induced ES vertical spike from 6680 to 6740, the index spiked to a high of 6772.75 so far, a full 2.7% above Tuesday's 5.2% corrective low from the ATH...
Good Thursday Morning, MPtraders! November 20, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: -- NVDA rules! The company reassures investors via its very strong revenue estimate. Jesen reports Q3 earnings per share of $1.30, beating expectations for $1.25. Q2 sales came in at $57.0 billion, easily surpassing forecasts for revenue of $54.8 billion. Nvidia is firing on all cylinders, and AI is clearly driving growth...
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! November 18, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: More of the same stair-step selling pressure that is threatening to invalidate my bullish Coil formation, which will morph the correction off of the ATH into a deeper, possibly total retracement of the upleg from the October 10 pivot low at 6540.25 to the October 30 ATH at 6953.75. The $64,000 question: Can or will the index (ES) regain some upside traction ahead of tomorrow eve's NVDA Earnings report?...
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! November 13, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- The Government is up and running again, but who knows when to expect "official economic data" to be released for October, if ever? Hopefully, Jay Powell and the FOMC can otherwise arrive at a reasonable conclusion about the health of the economy, the labor market, and inflationary pressures before the December 10th Fed Meeting...
ES-- My attached Big Picture chart setup is sending me "melt-up" technical vibes. My 8 Day EMA and the 20 Day SMA have a similar juxtaposition as they did at the August 2025 low: The 8 Day EMA kissed the up-sloping 20 Day SMA, but a negative cross-under was avoided during the 3.5% to 4.3% corrections (August and November)...After each "near MA cross-under" ES pivoted to the upside into a powerful new uptrend period. The current upmove from last Friday's reversal low at 6655.
Good Wednesday Morning, MPtraders! November 12, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Health update: I am definitely improving enough to be here before the open. The Tamaflu drug appears to be working! I plan to be in front of my screens all day, but the flu is a rollercoaster, so I might have to lay down later today to recharge. Thanks for all of your well wishes... AMD CEO on CNBC this AM amid an impressive 6+% pop in the stock.
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! November 5, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Has the storm passed? Is the correction exhausted? Maybe! From an index (ES) perspective, much will depend on the extension and structure of the ES rally from the overnight ("Mamdani") low at 6748.50 to this AM's high at 6801.50. My attached hourly chart shows ES pushing up (now slightly above) key initial resistance at 6801.
Good Monday Morning, MPTraders! November 3, 2025-- Pre-Market Update...-- Today is day #34 of the Government shutdown... Two federal judges have ruled that the Trump Administration must continue SNAP and subsistence payments later this week... There are social media comments that the Senate Democrats are betting that angry and "hangry" New Yorkers will sweep "Democrat Socialist" (some say Communist) candidate Zohran Mamdani into office tomorrow evening, and thereafter, will pass the Continuing Resolution as is, in a Senate vote on Wednesday ...
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! October 29, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: -- Today is Fed Day... 2 PM ET Policy Statement and Rate (Cut) Decision... 2:30 PM ET Powell Press Conference...-- There are three trading days remaining in October... Today is also the 208th trading day of 2025, which places us HERE in the Seasonal Calendar: (continued below the Seasonal Graphic)... -- Big Technology Earnings after the bell: META, MSFT, and GOOG...
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! October 28, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- There are three trading days remaining in October... during which time:-- Wednesday, the FOMC issues its policy statement and interest rate decision that the markets expect will be a 25 bps cut in Fed funds... -- and Thursday, includes President Trump's summit meeting with Chinese President Xi, when the leaders are expected to agree on a trade/tariff deal (framework) that will enable both countries to increase economic growth...
NOK (Nokia) is following the bullish script we discussed yesterday morning:I can make a compelling technical argument that NOK is in the process of emerging from a 15-year base-accumulation period and pattern that implies considerably higher prices, the lowest target of which is 11.80 to 12.30. For the time being, the technical work suggests strongly the NOK is a "keeper" that should be accumulated into weakness, and added to above 5.80...
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! October 21, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- 11 Calendar Days until November 1st, which is President Trump's deadline for imposition an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports if no progress is made on the trade negotiations. The threat notwithstanding, POTUS and Chinese President Xi are supposed to meet next week before the Nov. 1st deadline...
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! October 16, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- The Equity Indices are higher this AM, with ES trading ABOVE its 20 DMA (See my Big Picture Chart below), BUT has not (yet) thrust out of the Bullish Coil formation discussed yesterday afternoon (see my Hourly Chart below)...From an intraday perspective, first support resides at 6695-6700, but if violated, critical "Coil support" is at yesterday's upside pivot from 6651.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! October 14, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Equity markets are under pressure again from geopolitical event risk. ZeroHedge has a succinct description this AM: -- Global equity futures slipped on Tuesday after China vowed to "fight to the end" in its trade war with the U.S., following President Trump's threat last week to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! October 9, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: ES climbed to another new ATH at 6812.25 in overnight trading, now sitting above 6800 ahead of the opening bell. My attached Daily Chart indicates that as long as any forthcoming weakness is contained and repelled above or within consequential near-term support lodged from 6771 down to 6724, the bulls will remain in directional control, eying 6850 next, en route to 6880/90... Last is 6802.00... (continued below my ES Chart)...Benchmark 10-year YIELD starts today's session at 4.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! October 7, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: -- ES remains in the confines of a high-level bullish Coil formation that argues for upside continuation. My attached Hourly Chart shows the well-defined Coil that projects an upside thrust toward 6820/50 next. Only a bout of weakness that presses beneath 6765 will wreck the integrity of the Coil, and will morph the recent pattern into something considerably less bullish... Last is 6789.50... (continued below the ES chart)...
