Latest News at MPTrader
Below is a sampling of posts and articles by Mike Paulenoff, who produces over a dozen pieces of analysis on a range of markets and stocks each day for members in the live room.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! October 7, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: -- ES remains in the confines of a high-level bullish Coil formation that argues for upside continuation. My attached Hourly Chart shows the well-defined Coil that projects an upside thrust toward 6820/50 next. Only a bout of weakness that presses beneath 6765 will wreck the integrity of the Coil, and will morph the recent pattern into something considerably less bullish... Last is 6789.50... (continued below the ES chart)...
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! September 30, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: -- Today is the final trading session of September and Q3, 2025... -- Today is trading day #187 for 2025. Trading days 180 to 200 have produced the worst returns in the cash SPX on average since 1985. The close on day # 179 (9/19/25) was 6664.36. Yesterday's close on day #186 (9/29/25) was 6661.21, for a net negative closing differential of 3.
Good Monday Morning, MPTraders! September 22, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Houston, do we have a problem?Have a look at my attached charts:The precious metals (GLD, SLV) markets continue to fly (risk on), benchmark 10-year YIELD has backed UP to 4.14% from 4.00% immediately after last week's FOMC rate cut (risk off), the Equity Indices (ES) are down slightly this AM (calling the weakness risk off is a stretch so far), and Bitcoin is pulling back (risk off)...
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! September 18, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: As we discussed yesterday afternoon, when the dust settles after the index somersaults post-FOMC statement, and post-Powell commentary, we will see the "true" market direction, which we see is UP this AM. ES is up 0.8% and has climbed to a new ATH of 6719.75, at the upper boundary of my next higher Target Zone of 6700-6720. We have a Dovish-tilted Fed into year-end 2025.
ES-- A little volatility (profit-taking) into Fed Day, perhaps? ES is probing my first intraday support level at 6670, if violated and sustained, will point to 6640/50... Last is 6669.25...
Bitcoin appears to be positioned for upside continuation and acceleration ahead of and in reaction to an anticipated 25 bps rate cut tomorrow... Despite the market expecting a 25 bps cut (96% according to the Fed funds futures market), the prospect of a modestly dovish Fed renewing a rate cut cycle into year-end is a dog whistle for crypto risk-on.
Benchmark 10-year YIELD is circling 4.05% ahead of this morning's CPI data. We see on my Daily Chart of 10-year YIELD, that yesterday's downside YIELD reaction to cooler-than-expected PPI data has the right look of a Bearish Engulfing Candle that indicates technical weakness ahead. As long as any upmove in YIELD is contained beneath nearest resistance at 4.09% to 4.11% on a closing basis, YIELD points to a test of the psychologically important "Big Figure" level of 4.00% (down to 3.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! September 9, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: While investors await the next round of inflation data on Wed and Thurs AM at 8:30 ET, the elephant in the room today is the Annual US Nonfarm Payrolls Revisions, which are expected to be revealed today at 3:30 PM ET...Estimates for downward revisions are as high as 1 million annual job losses.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! September 4, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: It's all about Economic data in general, and tomorrow's Jobs Report in particular, for investors during the upcoming 24 hours. The data released this morning (after yesterday's lower-than-expected JOLTS report and stale Beige Book) tilts toward creeping weakness in the U.S. economy, and as such, more pressure on Powell to cut the Fed funds rate 25 bps in the September 17th FOMC meeting.
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! September 3, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Was yesterday's early weakness followed by a powerful rally another 1-Day Wonder within the confines of the dominant uptrend? Yesterday's "long-tailed" upside candle suggests the answer is, Yes (see my attached Daily Chart of ES). In addition-- and perhaps more importantly from a technical perspective-- the rally from yesterday's low at 6371.75 to this AM's pre-market high at 6460.25 (+1.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! August 28, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: There are two trading days remaining in August... Labor Market Economic Data today (8:30 AM ET) ahead of Friday's potentially consequential PCE Inflation Report for July... Now, onward to the elephant in the room: NVDA, which exceeded The Street's estimates on Earnings and Revenues, and guided higher, but without any updated date on sales to China.
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! August 27, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: There are three trading days remaining in August... After today's close, NVDA reports Earnings... Heading into NVDA Earnings-- an event that WILL MOVE THE MARKETS, ES is circling 6480 (see my attached 5 Minute Chart), a full 50 points above Monday's low at 6430.75, which represented a 50% correction of the vertical thrust precipitated by last Friday's "dovish-lean" from Fed Chair Powell in his annual Jackson Hole speech.
ES-- In my final update yesterday, I made a snarky comment that the index teased us by recovering impressively off of the intraday low, and by closing above the 20 DMA, but it was likely a teaser ahead of Friday's speech from Fed Chair Powell.This AM, ES is trading at 6389, backing away from yesterday's close at 6413.25, which places it again beneath the 20 DMA (6408), but still above yesterday's intraday low at 6362.
ES hit an overnight low at 6409, just above the up-sloping 20 DMA, now at 6408. The differential between the price structure and the consequential directional MA has been squeezed to near-zero. Technically, this means that ES must pivot to the upside off of the MA to avert triggering a near-term Downside Reversal Signal in my work.
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! August 20, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: TGT Earnings (see analysis below)... FOMC Minutes (2 PM ET)... Jackson Hole Symposium begins leading up to Fed Chair Powell's Friday 10 AM ET speech... ES probes the 20 DMA... TGT reported Earnings this AM, and announced a new CEO, neither of which has supported the price so far. My Big Picture technical set up argues that the Bear Phase that commenced after the ATH of 268.
My Big Picture work after the PPI Report shows zero change in the setup that argues for upside continuation, albeit, perhaps after a few hours of high-level "PPI churning." Last is 6471.50 off of an intraday PPI low at 6453.25...
Benchmark 10-Year YIELD:Humor me, please! In theory, isn't the long end of the curve supposed to react most acutely to signs of inflation? Where are the Bond Vigilantes this morning? Yesterday, YIELD settled at 4.24%. After this AM's shockingly hot July PPI report, 10-year YIELD is 4.26%! Technically (see my attachd Daily chart), for YIELD to regain upside traction, it needs to climb and sustain above heavy, consequential resistance from 4.31% (the down-sloping 20 DMA) to 4.35% (the down-sloping 50 DMA).
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! August 13, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: The slow-mo, but relentless equity market melt-up continues this AM, with ES clawing its way to higher ATHs at 6488.50, in route to my measured near-term upside target zone at 6530-6560 derived from the thrust out of the post-7/31 Triangle formation.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! August 7, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Where to begin this AM? There is a lot going on, which has become the rule, rather than the exception, during the extremely activist Trump Administration...-- POTUS announces 100% tariffs on semiconductor imports, except for those companies that "manufacture or commit to manufacturing in the U.S., such as AAPL...-- Late yesterday, from the Oval Office, AAPL announced an additional $100 billion investment in the U.S.
My Big Picture setup in ES is still focused on the price structure's juxtaposition with the 20 DMA. If my near-term pattern work that indicates the strength yesterday into this AM represents an "intervening" rally ahead of another corrective decline, then ES will again CLOSE beneath the 20 DMA, now at 6350, which will reinstate a preliminary downside reversal signal (that was neutralized by yesterday's upmove). Let's watch the ES-20 DMA differential-- now 11.5 points-- as today's trading unfolds... Last in ES is 6361.50...
When POTUS ended his 40-minute CNBC interview, ES was trading at 6366.50 compared to 6371.75 just before the start of the interview...As for Benchmark 10-Year YIELD, my attached Daily Chart shows the three-week nosedive from 4.49% (7/17/25) to 4.20% (8/04/25). During the next 1-3 days, the inability of YIELD to reverse off of 4.20%, and then take out resistance at 4.25%, will argue for downside continuation toward a challenge of the significant support line from the September 2024 low at 3.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! July 31, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Today is the final trading day of July. Tomorrow begins August, which historically and seasonally has been the second-to-worst-performing month of the year with an average return of minus 0.3% since 2015. That said, July ain't over yet! In pre-market trading, ES is up nearly 1% (Nasdaq futures are up 1.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! July 29, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: There are three trading days remaining in July... Still to come later this week:Fed Meeting, U.S. Jobs Report, Trump Tariff Deadline, and Earnings From Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta...As for ES this AM, it appears to be following my "instincts" described late yesterday: "my instincts tell me that ES could be rangebound between 6400 and 6450 until the next directional catalyst (FOMC, Trade Deal, PCE Inflation data)...
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! July 24, 2025-- There are six trading days remaining in July... The elephant in the room today is President Trump's visit to and comments during his hour at the Federal Reserve at 4 PM ET... I wonder if Fed Chair Powell will be there to greet him? (LOL)... GOOG reacted positively to Earnings and is following the technical script we discussed late yesterday.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! July 22, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Another subdued (bullish) overnight session in the equity futures indices... Neither Treasury Secretary Bessent's FOX interview nor former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's CNBC interview impacted the markets this AM, perhaps with the exception that Bessent's comment "I see no reason for Powell to step down now" can be attributed to ES trading from -5 pts to +3 points around 8 AM ET...
