Latest News at MPTrader

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  April 9, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: -- The range of positive, expected, or feared outcomes and the propaganda from the belligerents has created extreme, but increasingly plausible tail risks unlike I have seen in my four decades navigating markets... Hopefully, the tail risks will narrow rather than widen further after this Saturday's face-to-face U.S.

Emotions vs. The Big Picture Technical Indicator ConditionsWith each passing hour and headline, the stock indices react instantaneously to the prospect of EITHER purported total destruction of the Iranian nation-state OR something much less devastating that presumably paves a conciliatory path forward. No one knows what to expect during the 9-1/2 hours until the deadline time. Extremes: Total annihilation vs Ceasefire/Surrender?  Will either or both extremes open the Strait of Hormuz? The Gray Area:  Everything in-between the extremes...

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  April 2, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:  Today is the final session of the week. Market's are closed tomorrow for Good Friday... Tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET, the Gov't releases the March Jobs Report (to be discussed later this AM)...-- If President Trump intended to imbue the financial markets with confidence about an end to the Iran War, well, whatever he said or did not say had the opposite effect...Front month May NYMEX Crude Oil rocketed from 97.

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  March 31, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:-- Another Trump Tweet gooses equity index futures prices at around 7:15 AM ET:I think the implication of his comments indicates that the U.S. is oil self-sufficient and can walk away from the Iran War with the Strait of Hormuz closed, leaving most other countries in Europe and Asia, in particular, scrambling to procure their own oil.

May Crude Oil Update:  What a difference a day makes!Yesterday morning at this time, May Crude was circling 87.00.  Fast-forward 24 hours, we see May Crude circling 94.50 (+8.6%), and pushing up toward a challenge of the dominant resistance line off the March 8th post-war high at 118.00 that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 96.50 as we speak.

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  March 19, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:  Looking at all the red price action across my screens this AM, extending yesterday's relentless decline, the weakness reinforces my growing sense that ES is in the grasp of a liquidation event, a protection and preservation of capital operation during a period of constant uncertainty that continues to rotate through sectors and asset classes...ES is down 38 points and 0.6%, but more importantly, is pressing dangerously into the March 2026 corrective low-zone from 6634.

Cash Bitcoin and IBIT Update:  On February 5, 2026, when BTC was trading at 69,322, this is what we discussed about my Big Picture Weekly Chart Setup:My Weekly BTC setup indicates that the 70,000 down to up-sloping 200 Week MA, now at 58,085, is the potential bull-bear-battle Turn Zone that will be played out over a 4 to 6 week period, likely the requisite timeframe for WEEKLY Momentum to bottom, create a positive divergence, and then turn up...

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  March 12, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:It's tiring, isn't it? Investors and traders are hostage to constant headline risk from the Oil market specifically, and from the Trump Administration in general... Here is the current Oil vs. ES setup, expressed by my attached 15 Minutes Charts...What is the message this morning?  -- As long as April Crude Oil is north of $90.00, the setup off yesterday's pullback low at $82.

Cash Bitcoin and MSTR Update: Truth be told, the pattern carved out by BTC from its Feb. 2026 low at 60,070 continues to "impress me" as exhibiting counter-trend form, and as such, a recovery rally that is entering its 6th week. That said, however, strength from current levels of 70,700 that hurdles and sustains above the recent high at 74,100 will argue for an upside extension of the counter-trend upmove toward 80,500-82,500.

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  March 10, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:  -- Crude Oil and ES are still top of mind:The near-term charts shown below indicate that a sustained climb in April Crude above 91.50 will trigger upside continuation to 95.00-97.50, and perhaps to 100 again.

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  March 5, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:-- The War enters Day #5... -- ES is circling the mid-section of a multi-month range amid an impending historical directional shift from negative to positive (See chartwork below)...-- Oil Prices climbed to a new "wartime" high at $78.09 overnight, threatening to emerge from a multi-year range...

April Crude Oil needs to close under $73/bbl to trigger an initial technical "warning" that the Dec 2025-present advance from $54.63 to $77.50 is exhausted. In the absence of a close under $73.00, April Crude points next to $79-$82, indicating that a wider war premium is being built into the price of oil for nearest delivery... Last is $77.30...

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  March 3, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: What Now?  As we enter day 4 of the US/Israeli-Iran War, we have to ask ourselves if the markets are facing more or less uncertainty. At 4 PM ET yesterday, recovery market behavior suggested that Mr. Market was starting to see through the Fog of War.This morning?  Not so much!Technically, the intraday pattern carved out yesterday exhibited bullish form. As long as yesterday's pivot low at 6768.

Good Sunday Morning, MPTraders!  March 1, 2026: Special Update: Are there any market indications on Sunday afternoon that might provide directional hints about tonight's stock index, oil, and gold openings? Bitcoin is the only currently trading risk-on vs. risk-off 24/7 market that might be informative about market direction after Friday eve's U.S. and Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran, followed by Saturday's announcement that the Ayatollah Khamenei and many of his ruling leadership were killed.

What Am I Thinking?  Block Inc-- Symbol XYZ -- The Labor Market, Benchmark 10-Year Treasury YIELD, and the Fed...Block Inc's CEO Jack Dorsey tells the WSJ this AM, "Intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company." In a letter to shareholders, Dorsey "alluded to artificial intelligence tools as the reason for the cuts in a letter to shareholders.

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  February 24, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:  ES, AMD, HIMS, Earnings Releases, and the President's State of the Union Address...There are four trading days remaining in February...ES remains in the confines of a multi-month sideways range that has developed a lower boundary (support plateau) at 6750 to 6800, juxtaposed against an upper boundary (resistance plateau) from 7000 to 7045.

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  February 19, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:Economic Data Today:  For the most part, stronger Labor data than expected, stronger Manufacturing Data than expected, stronger Business Conditions and Manufacturing Orders than expected, overlaid on declining inflation... all of which-- to the extent that we believe this round of data-- to this observer, seems Goldilocks-ish, no? (Continued below)...Goldilocks or not, this "miserably" range-bound circle jerk of a market is what we encounter every day.

At the current pre-market price of 79.27, NFLX is down 41% from the ATH, as the price structure nears a significant technical inflection level in and around 75.00, which represents the Fibonacci 50% retracement-support level of the entire bull phase from the May 2022 low to the June 2025 high.

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  February 12, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: The more things change, the more they stay the same!  ES remains confined within a wide three-month sideways pattern, the boundaries of which are demarcated in gray on my attached Daily Chart. To break out to the upside, ES needs to chew or thrust its way through and above consequential resistance lodged between 7012 and 7045.

Typically, Rising Wedge formations END with a thrust out of the top of the Wedge, but fail to follow through on the upside, and instead reverse sharply to the downside, leaving behind a major Bull Trap Reversal that inaugurates a meaningful percentage correction of the most recent upleg, in this case from the 11/21/25 pivot low at 650.85 to the forthcoming new ATH, let's say at 700 to 703 (See my attached Daily Chart).

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  February 5, 2026-- Pre-Market Update: First Up, a look at the pattern setups in Bitcoin before my second update on GOOG, AMZN, and ES setups heading into today's session...Three views: My 4-Hour Set Up shows the breach of 70,000 that is accompanied by an extremely oversold condition that in the past has correlated with an emergent rally.

Economic Data:  ADP Monthly Employment gained 22,000 versus 45,000 expected, and 37,000 in December, suggesting that the labor market remains relatively weak, which plays into Trump, Bessent, and Warsh's insistence that interest rates should be lower...UBER Earnings Reaction:  UBER reported mixed results that initially pressed the stock to a pre-market spike-low at 69.50 from yesterday's close at 77.93 (-11%), where buyers swooped in to propel UBER above unchanged.

Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders!  January29, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:-- There are two trading days remaining in January... --  All else being equal, the January Seasonal Tendency is for SPX strength today and tomorrow into month-end (see Seasonal Graphic below)...-- Headline Risk this AM:  President Trump holds a Cabinet Meeting at 11 AM ET, which could be open to the press again...-- Notable Earnings After the Close: AAPL-- Geopolitical Risk Rhetoric is Climbing Rapidly concerning an imminent Persian Gulf War.

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  January 27, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:-- There are four trading days remaining in January...-- The Fed begins a two-day meeting. The FOMC Monetary Policy Statement will be released on Wednesday at 2 PM ET... At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell will hold a Press Conference, which could move markets...-- Notable Earnings Today: UNH, BA, GM, UPS, TXN, RTX... Tomorrow: MSFT, TSLA, IBM, ASML...

ES weakness during the three-day weekend, precipitated by the fallout from "The Great Disruptor," President Trump's "threats" to take Greenland by force, and to engage in battle with NATO et al, has inflicted meaningful technical damage to the dominant post-11/21/25 uptrend. My attached Daily Chart shows ES has sliced beneath key support clustered in and around 6950/60, which includes the 8 Day EMA, the 20 Day SMA, and the dominant up trendline.