Latest News at MPTrader
Below is a sampling of posts and articles by Mike Paulenoff, who produces over a dozen pieces of analysis on a range of markets and stocks each day for members in the live room.
The stronger-than-expected September Payrolls data elicited a positive reaction from the Equity Indices. On top of the NVDA-induced ES vertical spike from 6680 to 6740, the index spiked to a high of 6772.75 so far, a full 2.7% above Tuesday's 5.2% corrective low from the ATH...
Good Thursday Morning, MPtraders! November 20, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: -- NVDA rules! The company reassures investors via its very strong revenue estimate. Jesen reports Q3 earnings per share of $1.30, beating expectations for $1.25. Q2 sales came in at $57.0 billion, easily surpassing forecasts for revenue of $54.8 billion. Nvidia is firing on all cylinders, and AI is clearly driving growth...
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! November 18, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: More of the same stair-step selling pressure that is threatening to invalidate my bullish Coil formation, which will morph the correction off of the ATH into a deeper, possibly total retracement of the upleg from the October 10 pivot low at 6540.25 to the October 30 ATH at 6953.75. The $64,000 question: Can or will the index (ES) regain some upside traction ahead of tomorrow eve's NVDA Earnings report?...
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! November 13, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- The Government is up and running again, but who knows when to expect "official economic data" to be released for October, if ever? Hopefully, Jay Powell and the FOMC can otherwise arrive at a reasonable conclusion about the health of the economy, the labor market, and inflationary pressures before the December 10th Fed Meeting...
ES-- My attached Big Picture chart setup is sending me "melt-up" technical vibes. My 8 Day EMA and the 20 Day SMA have a similar juxtaposition as they did at the August 2025 low: The 8 Day EMA kissed the up-sloping 20 Day SMA, but a negative cross-under was avoided during the 3.5% to 4.3% corrections (August and November)...After each "near MA cross-under" ES pivoted to the upside into a powerful new uptrend period. The current upmove from last Friday's reversal low at 6655.
Good Wednesday Morning, MPtraders! November 12, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Health update: I am definitely improving enough to be here before the open. The Tamaflu drug appears to be working! I plan to be in front of my screens all day, but the flu is a rollercoaster, so I might have to lay down later today to recharge. Thanks for all of your well wishes... AMD CEO on CNBC this AM amid an impressive 6+% pop in the stock.
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! November 5, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Has the storm passed? Is the correction exhausted? Maybe! From an index (ES) perspective, much will depend on the extension and structure of the ES rally from the overnight ("Mamdani") low at 6748.50 to this AM's high at 6801.50. My attached hourly chart shows ES pushing up (now slightly above) key initial resistance at 6801.
Good Monday Morning, MPTraders! November 3, 2025-- Pre-Market Update...-- Today is day #34 of the Government shutdown... Two federal judges have ruled that the Trump Administration must continue SNAP and subsistence payments later this week... There are social media comments that the Senate Democrats are betting that angry and "hangry" New Yorkers will sweep "Democrat Socialist" (some say Communist) candidate Zohran Mamdani into office tomorrow evening, and thereafter, will pass the Continuing Resolution as is, in a Senate vote on Wednesday ...
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! October 29, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: -- Today is Fed Day... 2 PM ET Policy Statement and Rate (Cut) Decision... 2:30 PM ET Powell Press Conference...-- There are three trading days remaining in October... Today is also the 208th trading day of 2025, which places us HERE in the Seasonal Calendar: (continued below the Seasonal Graphic)... -- Big Technology Earnings after the bell: META, MSFT, and GOOG...
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! October 28, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- There are three trading days remaining in October... during which time:-- Wednesday, the FOMC issues its policy statement and interest rate decision that the markets expect will be a 25 bps cut in Fed funds... -- and Thursday, includes President Trump's summit meeting with Chinese President Xi, when the leaders are expected to agree on a trade/tariff deal (framework) that will enable both countries to increase economic growth...
NOK (Nokia) is following the bullish script we discussed yesterday morning:I can make a compelling technical argument that NOK is in the process of emerging from a 15-year base-accumulation period and pattern that implies considerably higher prices, the lowest target of which is 11.80 to 12.30. For the time being, the technical work suggests strongly the NOK is a "keeper" that should be accumulated into weakness, and added to above 5.80...
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! October 21, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- 11 Calendar Days until November 1st, which is President Trump's deadline for imposition an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports if no progress is made on the trade negotiations. The threat notwithstanding, POTUS and Chinese President Xi are supposed to meet next week before the Nov. 1st deadline...
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! October 16, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:-- The Equity Indices are higher this AM, with ES trading ABOVE its 20 DMA (See my Big Picture Chart below), BUT has not (yet) thrust out of the Bullish Coil formation discussed yesterday afternoon (see my Hourly Chart below)...From an intraday perspective, first support resides at 6695-6700, but if violated, critical "Coil support" is at yesterday's upside pivot from 6651.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! October 14, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Equity markets are under pressure again from geopolitical event risk. ZeroHedge has a succinct description this AM: -- Global equity futures slipped on Tuesday after China vowed to "fight to the end" in its trade war with the U.S., following President Trump's threat last week to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! October 9, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: ES climbed to another new ATH at 6812.25 in overnight trading, now sitting above 6800 ahead of the opening bell. My attached Daily Chart indicates that as long as any forthcoming weakness is contained and repelled above or within consequential near-term support lodged from 6771 down to 6724, the bulls will remain in directional control, eying 6850 next, en route to 6880/90... Last is 6802.00... (continued below my ES Chart)...Benchmark 10-year YIELD starts today's session at 4.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! October 7, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: -- ES remains in the confines of a high-level bullish Coil formation that argues for upside continuation. My attached Hourly Chart shows the well-defined Coil that projects an upside thrust toward 6820/50 next. Only a bout of weakness that presses beneath 6765 will wreck the integrity of the Coil, and will morph the recent pattern into something considerably less bullish... Last is 6789.50... (continued below the ES chart)...
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! September 30, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: -- Today is the final trading session of September and Q3, 2025... -- Today is trading day #187 for 2025. Trading days 180 to 200 have produced the worst returns in the cash SPX on average since 1985. The close on day # 179 (9/19/25) was 6664.36. Yesterday's close on day #186 (9/29/25) was 6661.21, for a net negative closing differential of 3.
Good Monday Morning, MPTraders! September 22, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Houston, do we have a problem?Have a look at my attached charts:The precious metals (GLD, SLV) markets continue to fly (risk on), benchmark 10-year YIELD has backed UP to 4.14% from 4.00% immediately after last week's FOMC rate cut (risk off), the Equity Indices (ES) are down slightly this AM (calling the weakness risk off is a stretch so far), and Bitcoin is pulling back (risk off)...
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! September 18, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: As we discussed yesterday afternoon, when the dust settles after the index somersaults post-FOMC statement, and post-Powell commentary, we will see the "true" market direction, which we see is UP this AM. ES is up 0.8% and has climbed to a new ATH of 6719.75, at the upper boundary of my next higher Target Zone of 6700-6720. We have a Dovish-tilted Fed into year-end 2025.
ES-- A little volatility (profit-taking) into Fed Day, perhaps? ES is probing my first intraday support level at 6670, if violated and sustained, will point to 6640/50... Last is 6669.25...
Bitcoin appears to be positioned for upside continuation and acceleration ahead of and in reaction to an anticipated 25 bps rate cut tomorrow... Despite the market expecting a 25 bps cut (96% according to the Fed funds futures market), the prospect of a modestly dovish Fed renewing a rate cut cycle into year-end is a dog whistle for crypto risk-on.
Benchmark 10-year YIELD is circling 4.05% ahead of this morning's CPI data. We see on my Daily Chart of 10-year YIELD, that yesterday's downside YIELD reaction to cooler-than-expected PPI data has the right look of a Bearish Engulfing Candle that indicates technical weakness ahead. As long as any upmove in YIELD is contained beneath nearest resistance at 4.09% to 4.11% on a closing basis, YIELD points to a test of the psychologically important "Big Figure" level of 4.00% (down to 3.
Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! September 9, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: While investors await the next round of inflation data on Wed and Thurs AM at 8:30 ET, the elephant in the room today is the Annual US Nonfarm Payrolls Revisions, which are expected to be revealed today at 3:30 PM ET...Estimates for downward revisions are as high as 1 million annual job losses.
Good Thursday Morning, MPTraders! September 4, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: It's all about Economic data in general, and tomorrow's Jobs Report in particular, for investors during the upcoming 24 hours. The data released this morning (after yesterday's lower-than-expected JOLTS report and stale Beige Book) tilts toward creeping weakness in the U.S. economy, and as such, more pressure on Powell to cut the Fed funds rate 25 bps in the September 17th FOMC meeting.
Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders! September 3, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Was yesterday's early weakness followed by a powerful rally another 1-Day Wonder within the confines of the dominant uptrend? Yesterday's "long-tailed" upside candle suggests the answer is, Yes (see my attached Daily Chart of ES). In addition-- and perhaps more importantly from a technical perspective-- the rally from yesterday's low at 6371.75 to this AM's pre-market high at 6460.25 (+1.
