NVDA Following Bullish Technical Setup Ahead Of Potentially Consequential US-China Deal

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders!  October 28, 2025-- Pre-Market Update:

-- There are three trading days remaining in October... during which time:

-- Wednesday, the FOMC issues its policy statement and interest rate decision that the markets expect will be a 25 bps cut in Fed funds... 

-- and Thursday, includes President Trump's summit meeting with Chinese President Xi, when the leaders are expected to agree on a trade/tariff deal (framework) that will enable both countries to increase economic growth...

-- Today, President Trump is in Japan and has signed a new rare-earth agreement with the Japanese Government. This adds to rare-earth deals struck earlier in his Asian trip with Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia. Although the Big Kahuna is striking a rare-earth deal with China on Thursday, POTUS appears to have secured future access to strategic minerals and metals elsewhere, ring-fencing China just in case Xi balks... 

The Markets:

Usually, the session before Fed Day is a quiet one, but so far today, the session is starting on firm footing. Notwithstanding that, according to Carson Group Chief Investment Strategist Ryan Dietrick, October 28th has been the strongest up-day of the year since 1928 (see graphic posted yesterday), ES is up 9 points at a new ATH of 6918.25 (see my attached Hourly Chart). 

Certainly, tomorrow's expected Fed rate cut and dovish guidance remain a carrot stick for investors, but we should overlay Fed expectations on an otherwise very bullish seasonal during November. 

Technically, as long as nearest-term intraday support at 6890 contains any forthcoming weakness, ES points next to 6960/70.

Should a bout of weakness emerge that presses beneath 6890, ES will trigger downside vulnerability to fill yesterday's up-gap open from 6865 down to 6828... Last is 695.25...

NVDA-- Meanwhile, over in chip land, ahead of tomorrow's potentially consequential US-China deal that will include facilitating access of US chips to China (perhaps in exchange for rare-earth metals access), we see that NVDA is following the bullish technical setup that we have been discussing lately. 

Truth be told, however, that today's pre-market strength (+0.8%) may be more a reflection of anticipation of President Trump's meeting with NVDA CEO Huang tomorrow before the US-China summit. 

Be that as it may, technically, NVDA is circling 193, just 1.4% from its ATH at 195.62 (10/10/25), which my pattern work argues will be tested and taken out in the hours/days directly ahead. 

Only a sharp downside reversal and press beneath 183.80 will invalidate my next upside target window of 200 to 205... Last is 192.94...