The Melt-up Continues Into Fed Time

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  October 29, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: 

-- Today is Fed Day... 2 PM ET Policy Statement and Rate (Cut) Decision... 2:30 PM ET Powell Press Conference...

-- There are three trading days remaining in October... Today is also the 208th trading day of 2025, which places us HERE in the Seasonal Calendar: (continued below the Seasonal Graphic)... 

-- Big Technology Earnings after the bell: META, MSFT, and GOOG...

-- Thursday, President Trump meets with Chinese President Xi, presumably to put their blessings on a workable, sustainable trade and tariff deal. This is after Trump has ring-fenced China with rare-earth and mineral deals from Japan, South Korea, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia, leaving Xi hardly any wiggle room if China wants to avoid crushing tariffs, and to gain access to advanced chip technology...

-- On the subject of technology, NVDA has ripped higher again this morning in pre-market trading, hitting another new ATH at 209.37 in a continued reaction to an improving US-China relationship that has increased anticipation of an expanded AI relationship that includes NVDA gaining access to China's market for its Blackwell chips (among other bullish factors that CEO Jensen Huang discussed at yesterday's GTC Conference (GPU Technology Conference) in Washington, D.C...

Technically, my attached 4-hour chart shows that NVDA has blown past my target zone of 200-205 forecast after the conclusion of the August-September correction from 185.22 to 164.22, which triggered a higher intermediate-term projection of 227-230. As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained within or above support from 196 to 200, the 227-230 target zone will remain technically viable... Last is 207.78... (Continued below my NVDA Chart)...

ES-- From my Big Picture perspective, the melt-up continues into Fed Time. While we need to expect an uptick in volatility-- the two-way variety, that is-- my pattern setup argues that UNLESS a bout of weakness slices and sustains beneath 6830, the dominant trend remains UP and projects next to a 7000-7020 target window. 

That said, from a more granular, nearest-term technical perspective, any intraday weakness needs to find support from 6900 to 6920 to avert triggered increased two-way volatility (indicative of a post-FOMC meeting market)... As long as 6900 contains any forthcoming weakness, the bulls will be in intraday directional control eyeing 7000 next.... Last is 6942.50...