Eye On First 5 Day Rule

Here is the text-corrected version of my first update... as I get another cup of heavily caffeinated coffee!

Good Tuesday Morning, MPTraders! January 6, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:  

Thursday and Friday of this week are potentially important sessions...

If Thursday's close is above 6845.50 on the Cash SPX, then the first 5 trading sessions of 2026 will be positive. According to Tom Lee, since 1950, the First 5 Day Rule has yielded powerful results and accuracy. Over the past 76 years, in the 49 instances when the first 5 days of January were UP, the average annual return is 16%, but when the first 5 days are down, the average return for the year is up just 3%. This is a significant difference in annual returns...

Although these anecdotal probability studies seem a bit hokus-pokus, the data is the data, which interests me, and should interest all of us because traders and investors actually behave in accordance with these outcomes. 

My attached 2-Hour Chart of SPX shows the pattern setup, the dominant Nov-Jan up trendline that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 6825, and the closing price on Dec 31, 2025, at 6845.45. 

Today is the third trading day of 2026, Wednesday is the fourth trading day, and Thursday is the 5th trading. At the close on Thursday, the Cash SPX needs to be above 6845.45 to satisfy a positive outcome to the First 5 Day Rule. The SPX enters today's session at 6902.09, or up 0.8% for 2026 so far... 

What's important about Friday? It is Monthly Jobs Report Day, and could be a significant directional catalyst after the 5 Day Rule concludes...