Last Thursday (4/17/25) afternoon, ahead of NFLX (Netflix) post-close earnings report and the three-day Good Friday holiday weekend, we discussed the technical setup and whether or not the NFLX pattern was positioned to react positively to the news :
The NFLX setup heading into Earnings later today is favorable for upside continuation above the prior two rally highs at 993.45 (4/15) and 998.70 (3/25), but not to a new ATH above 1064.50 unless NFLX reports stronger-than-expected results AND a compelling tease about non-subscriber count growth in an uncertain and challenging economic environment, arguably when NFLX performs at its best. My primary scenario argues for upside continuation in reaction to earnings above 1000 toward 1025-1065 (beneath the ATH), from where sellers will emerge, indicating the upmove off of the 4/07/25 intraday spike low at 812.70 is exhausted and in need of a rest-digestion period before rocketing to a new ATH. Only a bullish blow-out reaction to Earnings that takes out and sustains above the ATH of 1064.50 will trigger immediate projections to 1160/80 next... Last is 974.57...
My attached 4-Hour Chart shows that in response to a beat of The Street's EPS, Revenue, and Margin expectations, NFLX climbed from its 4 PM ET close at 974.12 to an aftermarket spike-high of 1024 (+5.1%), which we see was just shy of hitting the lower boundary of my optimal target window from 1025 to 1065 where my pattern work argues for the conclusion of the upleg from the 4/07/25 corrective low at 812.70.
During the upcoming sessions, my pattern work will become increasingly cautious about NFLX reaching a condition of upside exhaustion ahead of a bout of corrective weakness (representing the next buying opportunity).
While NFLX will remain a "go-to" defensive name in an extremely fragmented market looking for policy clarity out of Washington, its ascent won't be a straight line.
At last week's close of 1006.79, NFLX is up 24% during April so far-- and points a bit higher in the upcoming sessions, with potential to tack on a few more percentage points in a 30% intra-month climb that will certainly deserve a period of digestion and correction...
Join me and MPTrader members ASAP for our ongoing opportunistic analysis and conversations about NFLX and many other individual equity names (especially during the heart of earnings season), sector ETFS, macro indices, commodities, precious metals, and Bitcoin... MJP
(StockCharts.com as of the 4 PM ET close on 4/17/25)