Is AMD Positioned to Break the Back of its 14-Month Downtrend?
by Mike Paulenoff
May 18, 2025 • 11:13 AM EDT
On May 6, 2025, during the final hour of trading, and before AMD was scheduled to report quarterly Earnings that evening, I posted the following analysis to our MPTrader Discussion Room:
AMD reports Earnings after the close... The only conviction I can derive from my pattern work is that the 4/08/25 low at 76.48, which represented a 66% correction from the March 2024 high at 227.30, has the right look of a significant low that completed a major bear phase. As long as any forthcoming negative reaction to Earnings is contained above 76.48, AMD should be considered in a bottoming phase. If AMD reacts positively to Earnings, a sustained climb above yesterday's high at 102.05 is imperative, and thereafter, upside continuation toward a challenge of next meaningful resistance from 114 to 116. Only a climb that takes out and sustains above 124-125 will trigger an intermediate-term upside reversal in my work... Last is 99.73...
Fast-forward across multiple follow-up MPTrader posts. AMD followed my bullish technical scenario after its 5/06/25 Earnings report. From the significant 4/08/25 bear phase low at 76.48 through last week's price action, we see (on my attached Daily chart) AMD hit a high of 122.52 on 5/14/25, a full 23% above my May 6th update and 60% above the 76.48 low... (continued below my chart)...
Let's notice that at the end of last week, AMD tested the consequential down-trendline from the March 2024 high at 227.30, which cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 122. Although the trendline preserved the integrity of the bear phase so far, my pattern work off of the April 2025 low, coupled with the positive influence of the intermediate-term cycle configuration, argues in favor of upside continuation to 139-141 next, and then to 157-160 thereafter.
Only a bout of weakness that breaks and sustains beneath important support from 102.40 to 106.20 will compromise the strengthening technical setup developing in AMD.
If the cycle configuration holds reasonably true to form, AMD will be the beneficiary of positive news and bullish fundamental catalysts for the upcoming 8 to 10 weeks before headwinds reemerge... Close Friday 5/18/25: 117.17...
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts
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