Is AMD Positioned to Break the Back of its 14-Month Downtrend?
by Mike Paulenoff
May 18, 2025 • 11:13 AM EDT
On May 6, 2025, during the final hour of trading, and before AMD was scheduled to report quarterly Earnings that evening, I posted the following analysis to our MPTrader Discussion Room:
AMD reports Earnings after the close... The only conviction I can derive from my pattern work is that the 4/08/25 low at 76.48, which represented a 66% correction from the March 2024 high at 227.30, has the right look of a significant low that completed a major bear phase. As long as any forthcoming negative reaction to Earnings is contained above 76.48, AMD should be considered in a bottoming phase. If AMD reacts positively to Earnings, a sustained climb above yesterday's high at 102.05 is imperative, and thereafter, upside continuation toward a challenge of next meaningful resistance from 114 to 116. Only a climb that takes out and sustains above 124-125 will trigger an intermediate-term upside reversal in my work... Last is 99.73...
Fast-forward across multiple follow-up MPTrader posts. AMD followed my bullish technical scenario after its 5/06/25 Earnings report. From the significant 4/08/25 bear phase low at 76.48 through last week's price action, we see (on my attached Daily chart) AMD hit a high of 122.52 on 5/14/25, a full 23% above my May 6th update and 60% above the 76.48 low... (continued below my chart)...
Let's notice that at the end of last week, AMD tested the consequential down-trendline from the March 2024 high at 227.30, which cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 122. Although the trendline preserved the integrity of the bear phase so far, my pattern work off of the April 2025 low, coupled with the positive influence of the intermediate-term cycle configuration, argues in favor of upside continuation to 139-141 next, and then to 157-160 thereafter.
Only a bout of weakness that breaks and sustains beneath important support from 102.40 to 106.20 will compromise the strengthening technical setup developing in AMD.
If the cycle configuration holds reasonably true to form, AMD will be the beneficiary of positive news and bullish fundamental catalysts for the upcoming 8 to 10 weeks before headwinds reemerge... Close Friday 5/18/25: 117.17...
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
Late on Friday, fellow MPTrader member MarkinQueens exclaimed: Mike's XOM (Exxon Mobil) chart from August is working! Last $117.26!Back on August 25th, this is what we discussed about Crude Oil and XOM:Just in case anyone is wondering what the chart of nearby Crude Oil is looking like as we approach the "official" end of summer.
On August 12, 2025, this was my response to an inquiry from an MPTrader member about intense weakness impacting SMR (NuScale Power Corp):SMR (NuScale Power)-- Fellow member Irv66 asked for an update on this modular nuclear reactor manufacturer that blasted-off from 11.08 in early April to 53.50 at the end of July (+382%), but has since been in the grasp of a major correction from 53.50 to 38.33 (-28.6%). My pattern work argues that SMR is nearing key support from 37.50 down to 33.
ARKK (ARK Innovation Fund, ETF)-- Back on August 20, 2025, this is what we discussed about ARKK:Fellow member Pawel has requested an update on Cathie Wood's fund, which in June thrust up and out of a 3-1/2 year base-accumulation period and pattern above 68.40/50 that subsequently climbed to my initial target in the vicinity of 80 (see my attached Daily Chart). Since the 7/21/25 high at 79.
On July 31, 2025, with SLV (Silver ETF) trading at 33.27, this is what we discussed about my technical setup:SLV-- On the subject of tariffs, copper, and silver, Trump extended the tariff deal with Mexico for 90 days, which included steel and copper, but NO MENTION of Silver (so far). Let's notice on my attached 4-Hour chart of SLV that the week-long nosedive from 35.91 to this AM's low at 33.
On February 18, 2025, this is what I posted on MPTrader about KWEB (Chinese Internet ETF) that alerted traders to a potentially explosive setup that should keep KWEB on our radar screens going forward :My attached Daily Chart shows that KWEB is attempting to emerge from a huge, three-year rounded base-accumulation setup that projects much higher prices as the price structure climbs the "recovery wall of worry" in the aftermath of the relentless bear phase from the February 2021 ATH at 104.