This past week, 10-year YIELD broke and sustained below key support at 2.18% - 2.15%, and has continued lower today in reaction to deteriorating economic data.
The break of key support signaled to me that there is an increasing likelihood that all of the action from the Jan low at 1.64% to the May high at 2.36% represented a completed counter-trend correction.
If accurate, it means that current weakness initiated a new downleg within the dominant (34-year) downtrend, and is pointed next to 2.03% - 1.95%.
If I was refinancing my mortgage, I would give the benefit of the doubt to waiting a while longer prior to locking in my new rate.
That said, be advised that next Friday morning we get the next set of monthly Employment Data, which will move the market.
A weak set of data could be catalyst for downside acceleration below 2.00%.