Three times in the last 6 weeks, 10-year Yield pressed towards a test of its rising 200-Day EMA, in a range between 2.58% and 2.61%, and each time Yield pivoted off of the EMA.
Last week's flight-to-safety into US Treasury paper during escalating tensions in Ukraine was the most recent example of price strength--Yield weakness in and around the Yield 200-Day EMA.
While 6-week action has carved out a possible bottom in Yield, along the 200-Day EMA, upside action in Yield itself needs to do more before my technical work indicates Yield has launched into a new upleg.
To really get some upside traction, Yield must climb and sustain above 2.81%, which will trigger upside potential to retest the prior highs at 3.01% and 3.04%.
Only much stronger U.S. economic data, or a plunge in the US Dollar, or a melt-up in the U.S. equity markets are likely to elicit such a spike in Yield.