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For today's Mid-Day Minute, Mike writes: Purely from a technical perspective, the December E-mini S&P has met its upside target 1114-1117, and then some (with an "overshoot high" at 1119.50), and should move into a micro topping phase for the next couple of hours... HOWEVER, JUST LIKE I SUGGESTED EARLIER THAT EVENT RISK COULD BE A PROBLEM, SO TOO CAN THE MARKET "MELT-UP" ON "SURPRISING" GOOD NEWS--- like a drop in oil prices... A well-connected friend of mine called me with the following heresay after the crude oil inventory data were released: "Kerry has a plan to swap sweet crude in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for sour crude; if announced let alone implimented, it would be very bearish for NYMEX crude....starting to hear some chatter that Bush could 'adopt' this idea to get crude lower before the election."

True or contrived, this is the type of story that can goose the shorts, and represents the countervailing balance to the event risk...As for the E-SPZ, my work argues that the upmove from 1088 low on Monday to today's high at 1119.50 is NEARLY complete-- with upside potential into the 1120-1122 to conclude the Mon.-Wed. upleg... AND THAT IT EXHIBITS BULLISH STRUCTURE... which warns us that after a pullback, another potent upleg should emerge-- that propels the E-SPZ to the 1131-1134 next target zone.

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