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A Dead "$CAT" Bounce, or What?


Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is up more than 4% today, and while its pop coincides with a Wall Street firms upgrade to "Mixed" from "Negative," one look at the enclosed weekly chart from 2007 suggests strongly that CAT has some serious work to do on the upside prior to triggering an intermediate-term buy signal.

Heavy resistance resides from 68.80 to 74.25, which if hurdled and sustained, will confirm a bottom, and although CAT might have put in a Sept-Dec double bottom at 62.99 and 64.10 in anticipation of an improvement in the fundamentals, future Chinese growth, and a reversal in the commodity bear market would seem to be requisites for more than a brief oversold bounce.

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