Below is what we discussed after the close on Friday.
The analysis valid and viable this morning, as ES (Emini S&P 500) grinds higher off of Friday's Fischer Low at 2157.50 into the August sideways range between 2190/91 on the high side vs 2167/65 on the low-- that was violated briefly Friday afternoon.
Perhaps ES will gravitate up into the 2180 area-- the mid-point of the range-- where it will circle right into Friday's Jobs Report? MJP 8/29/16
Once again, ES broke down, and had a chance to inflict some meaningful damage to the post-Brexit uptrend. Now that the dust is settling a bit, we have to wonder if today's action is any more meaningful than the decline at the start of August, which pressed ES (Emini S&P 500) to the downside by 36.25 points prior to the emergence of buying that propelled the index to new all-time highs? In fact, the most recent decline, from the Aug 23 high at 2191.50 into today's low at 2157.50 represents a 35-point decline, prior to the final hour 11.25-point recovery off of the low of the day. As of this moment, the Aug 23 to Aug 26 decline is exactly the same magnitude as the Aug 1 to Aug 2 decline. Similarly, the early August decline also looked like it broke down from a 3-week sideways top formation, but the breakdown turned out to be a Bear Trap.
Right now, all I think I know is that only another decline that breaks and sustains beneath today's low at 2157.50 will argue that perhaps "this time it is different." Barring renewed weakness, however, we will have to wonder if ES once again has finished a minor pullback within a still-viable bullish set up?
My suspicion is that inability of the bears to press ES beneath 2157.50 will put ES back into its sideways funk for all of next week until we get the Jobs Report on Friday morning, at which point ES will lurch either towards a confrontation with the lower side of its range, or to the upside to challenge the upper range boundary.
How could it be that after yet another round of Fed Speak, the market could still remain a sideways, frustrating mess? MJP 8/26/16