After Monday's Bear Trap in Oil, What Now?

After trapping the bears at a marginal new 3 1/2-month low at $42.20, Oil pivoted to the upside, and has since climbed above its Oct-Nov resistance line ($44.35) to a high of $44.95, largely because of a combination of an acute, over- sold condition, and rumblings from OPEC that the cartel actually WILL agree to cut production at its Nov 30 meeting.

Of course, we have to place the recovery-rally action against a backdrop of rising-rig counts, a number of analysts who claim that OPEC has been increasing production before they have to bite the bullet on lower quotas, and a new, Trump energy policy that could unleash much more supply onto the market.

That said, we also hear that Trump and Putin have spoken, and want to normalize relations, go after ISIS... and... and... perhaps find a way to help Mr. Putin reverse sanctions imposed by President Obama, which just might mean that there is an orchestrated, outsized upmove heading our way in the Oil market.

Just saying... that a Trump-Putin quid pro quo might include a discussion about Oil prices, dear to Mr. Putin.

Let's see if Oil can holds its two-day gains through this eve's API Inventory Report, and tomorrow's EIA Report.