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All Eyes on the FOMC, and The Reaction of 10-Year Treasury YIELD


Below is what we discussed yesterday, when YIELD was trading at 1.76%. It is even more relevant this morning, with YIELD spiking up to 1.82% ahead of the Fed Minutes-- and despite a teetering equity market. MJP 5/18/16

This comparison chart relationship fascinates and intrigues me. As the ES (Emini S&P 500) appears to be carving out a March-May Top Formation, 10-Year YIELD appears to be carving out a Bottom Formation, just the opposite of what I would expect. Shouldn't YIELD be nose-All Eyes on the FOMC, and The Reaction of 10-Year Treasury YIELDdiving in anticipation of a scary bout of weakness in the equity market? Either YIELD is concerned about something else-- like a period of Fed-blessed reflation, or the YIELD market "thinks" and anticipates that the equity market top is a head-fake ahead of an upside blast-off? I really don't know which is "true," but I think I know one thing: YIELD points higher for whatever reason, which encourages me to stay long TBT's. MJP 5/17/16

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