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Another Warning from the VIX


All of the action in the shaded area from mid-Jan 2013 shows the rounded-bottom pattern in the VIX juxtaposed against rising-price pattern of the SPX.

That tells us that the VIX has been "doubting" the sustainability of the SPX upmove for quite a while.

Now that the SPX has climbed to a new all-time high at 1693.12, while the VIX has declined to another higher-low at 13.20 within its still-intact base pattern, we are once again reminded that the VIX is not confirming the "euphoria" implied by the vertical ascent of the SPX.

Barring a "catch-up" breakdown to new lows in the VIX beneath the 11.05 low on March 14, 2013, which would confirm the new SPX high, the appearance of yet another divergence should be viewed as a serious warning signal that the upmove in the SPX is on borrowed time.

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