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Awaiting Entry Point on DIG


The oil and gas sector finally is on the move, perhaps in reaction to the decline of the dollar (commodity relationship). Since last Friday, the Proshares UltraLong Oil & Gas Sector ETF (NYSE: DIG) climbed from 34.00 to 36.32, or +6.8%. More importantly, the rally off of the October 2 low at 29.13 also broke above a ONE YEAR RESISTANCE plateau at the 34.00 level as well, which has measured upside potential targets of 44.50 and 51.00. So why don't I just fly into a new long position now? Largely because the DIG is up 24% in 8 trading sessions, and exhibits a near term upleg pattern that is at or very close to completion prior to a pullback. Could the DIG continue higher to test the top of its July-Oct. channel at in the vicinity of 37.00? Definitely yes, but that represents another 2% on the upside juxtaposed against risk of a retracement back into the 34.00-33.00 area, or -5% to -8%. No thanks. I will take my chances and sit out a bit longer, looking for a revisit to the upside breakout area in the upcoming hours or days prior to entering a new long position. MJP 10/14/09 12:10 PM ET (36.10)

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