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BRENT-W&T Offshore Spread Should Reverse Polarity Soon


The chart below shows the spread (differential) between Brent North Sea Oil and NYMEX Crude Oil.

In July 2013, Brent plunged to nearly par (zero premium) to NYMEX, but then recovered in a big way to lead to spread back to a Brent premium of $19.29 in Nov. 2013.

Since then, the spread has contracted again, with Brent losing ground to W&T Offshore Inc. (WTI), which in the present timeframe means that WTI (NYMEX) Crude is rallying while Brent either stays stabilized or declines.

This spread relationship outweighs whatever weak (excess-supply) fundamentals that should be governing the price and price direction of NYMEX Oil.

From a technical perspective, my work on the spread argues it should be nearing a turn in the $9.80 to $7.60 window where it is now.

If the spread turns up, then NYNEX Oil, and the United States Oil (USO), should reverse to the downside, and SCO should take off to the upside.

Last in BRENT: $106.90... WTI: $ 98.26

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