Breakout or Counter-Trend Rally in the EEM?

The time of truth for the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), which by all accounts has broken out of its Jan-Mar base formation, and could be heading for 43.00.

Could be?

Yes, but first this “breakout” must be confirmed with a close above 41.10/30.

Otherwise, inability of the EEM to close above 41.10/30 will leave open an alternate recovery-rally pattern (upside swing move) that will complete in the vicinity of 41.10/30.

Should the EEM fail “up there” or lower, and then reverse back beneath 40.20, we will have reason to doubt the integrity of the upside breakout and the bottom pattern.