Bullish Scenarios for Oil

One of two scenarios is unfolding in nearby NYMEX oil here. One is that at last Wednesday's low at 104.35, a correction ended off of the March 1 high at 110.55, which means oil is in the early stages of a new up-leg.

Alternatively, all of the action off of the March 1 high at 110.55 is part of a high-level digestion period of the prior up-leg from 95.44 to 110.55, which when complete will resolve in a thrust to 114.00-116.00 thereafter.

Only a decline that breaks 104.35 will invalidate the current technical set-up.

Spot gold, meanwhile, has held its 50% pullback plateau so far at $1692 (in the 1690 area), which is very important to the extreme near-term outlook for the metals. There has been zero movement in EUR/USD, so the metals and commodity complex are experiencing their own noise today, thanks mainly to the negative growth news that continues to emanate from China.

This increases the likelihood that the Chinese central bankers are about to orchestrate another round of their own stimulus, in coordination with the Fed, the ECB, and the BOJ to further prop up global markets.

That is why I would not panic out of precious metals, mining, and energy positions such as the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO).