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Coffee vs. The Brazilian Real

Since May 2011 coffee prices have been declining coincident with a steady, stair-step climb in the appreciation of the USD vs. the Brazilian REAL.

Let's notice that prior to May, 2011, during the prior bull market in coffee, from May 2010 to May 2011, the coincident relationship was the opposite-- as USD/REAL weakened, coffee climbed.

What now?

My near- and intermediate-term work on USD/REAL indicates that it is vulnerable to a significant rollover into a multi-month decline as seen below, while my work on coffee coincidentally argues that its bear phase is complete, and coffee now is "in the turn."

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