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Confluence of Positive Technical Factors Heading Into December


Our cycle work in the S&P 500 indicates that we are near the timeframe for the establishment of a small cycle low due on November 30 (+/- 2 days). A small cycle is 20-25 days, and lies within the larger, overriding cycle of 70-75 days. Accordingly, we find that the S&P 500 on Monday and last Friday hit a corrective low at 1158.67/66, and since then has pivoted to the upside into Tuesday's high at 1203.67 (so far).

In addition, my near-term pattern work indicates that the rally exhibits bullish form, which warns me to expect additional strength after any sort of digestion or pullback period. The bullish form of the rally coupled with the timeframe for a small cycle low that pivoted to the upside right at the 62% retracement support plateau of the October 4-27 advance -- in addition to the oversold condition and potentially powerful seasonal factors during December -- would appear to be a prescription for the initiation of a period of rising equity index prices.

As long as last Friday's low at 1158.66 contains any forthcoming weakness, a confluence of potentially very positive technical factors appear to be in place and very supportive heading in December.

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