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Counter Trend Rallies Fail to Get Sustained Traction So Far


NYMEX Oil, as shown in the chart, remains in the powerful grasp of the bears and the dominant downtrend.

All I can say is that there must be some really big liquidations going on, some bad losses.

Any rally of $0.50 or more is met with panic liquidation to get the heck out of the oil patch.

At some point, such panic liquidation will set up the next, very rewarding opportunity on the long side of oil, but so far, damage does not yet appear complete.

As for the e-SPH, it will be interesting to see if this morning's recovery rally is merely an oversold bounce that will dissipate quickly in sympathy with additional weakness in oil?

In any case, from a technical perspective, this morning's strength has smacked right into Nov-Dec resistance starting at 2016/19, which should put a lid on upside continuation prior to my expectation of a downside reversal and resumption of weakness off of the 4-week top formation.

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