CounterTrend Upmove in S&P 500
By Mike Paulenoff, www.MPTrader.com
The plot thickens. In this morning's posting we discussed the likelihood of upside follow-through from yesterday's low at 1307.00 in the S&P 500 e-Mini contract, but that the index would have to hurdle and sustain above 1348.50 to trigger upside acceleration towards the op of the Feb-Mar range. As it turned ou, the e-SPH peaked so far at 1345.00 prior to its mid-session AMBAC swoon. More vital, however, is that the pattern carved out from 1307 to 1345 does NOT exhibit particularly bullish form. This is a warning signal that the upmove is countertrend and when complete should resolve itself in another nasty decline. Wait! Before we run out and establish a new short in the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY) or long in the S&P 500 UltraShort ETF (AMEX: SDS), let's be aware that the countertrend rally itself looks like it has more room to run, and may hurdle 1348.50 on the way to 1365/70 -- prior to the downside pivot reversal that should be forthcoming. Patience, patience into late Thursday, or even early Friday, after the Employment Report!