Crude Oil Firms Again Heading into the OPEC Meeting...

Ahead of a three day OPEC meeting, here is what my analysis argues is the most likely price path, rumors and stories of an output freeze or not, notwithstanding...

Purely from a technical perspective, if the Sept 20 low at $42.55 ended the Aug-Sept correction, and if the first upmove of a new upleg off of the Sept 12 low ended at yesterday's high of $46.52, then recent weakness represents a deep pullback of 55%, ahead of the next upmove.

From a pattern perspective, as long as $42.55 remains a viable pivot low, my read on the Oil pattern remains constructive-- for upside continuation from wherever this deep pullback runs its course.

The optimal area for Oil to pivot again to the upside is around $44.00, which is where Oil gapped up last Tuesday eve (Sept 20) immediately after the bullish API Inventory report was released.