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Despite Today's Rally, Intermediate Signals Pointing Down!
To put today's upmove in a larger perspective -- certainly larger than my 1-minute or 4-hours chart analytics, let's have a look at my updated weekly pattern and moving average analytics in the cash SPX.
Only twice in the last 11 years (2000 & 2007) have ALL of my directional moving averages turned down into a negative crossing, which subsequently confirmed that an acute, intermediate-term bear phase was underway. In 2000, after the downside MA inflection point, the SPX declined from 1380 to 768 (-45%), and in 2007 the SPX declined from 1475 to 666.79 (-55%).
Let's notice that with about 2-1/2 hours remaining in this week's trading, all of my intermediate term directional moving averages are pointed down, with the 13-week MA having crossed beneath the declining 26- and 52-week MAs earlier this month. The 26-week MA also is pointed sharply to the downside, but has not crossed beneath the 52 -week MA just yet.
That said, it seems a fait accompli at today's close or after next Friday's close that a crossing will occur, triggering a completed negative weekly MA sell signal -- the third such signal since 2000 -- and an apparent pre-condition for a potentially very powerful decline. Or, in the current case, it will mean downside continuation towards the optimal target zones at around 1000, and possibly 800 thereafter.
When I look at this weekly pattern and MA configuration, I must remind myself to avoid getting too caught up in the intraday volatility -- even today's 46 point traverse seems relatively insignificant in the larger scheme of things.
