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Did New Upleg in ES Start Wednesday Afternoon?


If we step back and look at the chart(s) from a big picture, intermediate-term perspective, what do we see?

For starters, we continue to see a powerful uptrend in the Emini S&P 500 (ES), which has not been seriously damaged during 5.5% correction from Sept 19 to Oct 9.

Only a decline that breaks the Aug 29 low at 1626.25 will inflict significant technical damage to the post-Nov. 2012 uptrend.

That said, what is troublesome is the due-South direction of my Coppock-Curve momentum gauge, which "needs" to pivot to the upside, and then above zero to provide support-sustained upside continuation of the ES.

Bottom Line: Today's strength should be viewed as a relief rally, within an incomplete larger corrective process, rather than the start of a new upleg.

The lower chart also shows a powerful pattern-- a 2-1/2 year rounded base formation of 10 year T-bond Yield, which broke out to the upside above 2.40% in July and ran to 3.01% at its Sept high, but has since been in a correction that has pressed Yield to a low of 2.58%.

Today's surge to 2.70% argues strongly that Yield has completed a corrective leg (3.01%-2.58%), but not necessarily the start of a new bull phase.

While momentum has turned up (unlike in the ES so far), confirmation from the Coppock-indicator crossing above zero remains critical if strength in Yield is to prove sustainable.

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