Doha Bust? Now What for Oil?

Post-Doha, Oil has declined about 5.5%, from above $40 into the $38 area, just above its Feb-Apr support line, which crosses the price axis in the vicinity of 37.50 today.

Based on my pattern work, all of the action off of the Apr pullback low at $35.24 up to the Apr 13 new recovery high at $42.42, and now down to $37.50 in the aftermath of Doha, represents the initial thrust and correction of a still-incomplete, new post-Feb advance.

Barring a sustained break of the Apr 5 low, I am expecting the post-Doha weakness to end in the upcoming hours in the vicinity of $37.00, and thereafter, Oil will pivot to the upside into another upleg that projects to $45.00.