EWG Still Leading Major Global Equity Indices to the Downside

Thus far, since it peaked at 32.37 on June 19, the iShares MSCI Germany (EWG) has declined 13%, and shows no signs of a budding-upside reversal at the moment, while its pattern still points lower towards 27.40/10 next.

Meanwhile, if the fact that the EWG peaked 5 weeks prior to the high in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) means that the EWG is leading a rotational correction in global equities, then shouldn't we be prepared for still-more weakness in the SPY?

A decline in the SPY that approximates the 13% correction in the EWG would place the former in a target vicinity of 175-173.

A less impactful correction for the SPY of 10% will place its target at 180-179, but in either case (-13% or -10%) such a correction will represent a downward traverse of the 2011-2014 channel-width, and also will include a meaningful breach of the rising 200-day EMA, now at 185.75.


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