My big-picture chart of EUR/USD shows that the price structure has pressed to a new 11-month low just under 1.3200, off of its May high just shy of 1.4000.
Let's notice that my weekly RSI-momentum gauge is probing an initial oversold level, but is confirming weakness into new-low territory, which argues that EUR/USD has lower-lows ahead prior to any sustainable recovery rally.
How much lower?
The last time the juxtaposition of weekly price and momentum were configured similarly was in the first half of 2010, when EUR/USD pressed from 1.5150 to 1.3440, at which point momentum was probing oversold levels.
However, thereafter, we see that recovery rallies failed prior to a powerful new downleg to 1.2330 that put in a final low for the downleg.
Should a similar scenario unfold now, EUR/USD would appear vulnerable to downside continuation that breaks its 2000-2014 support line, now at 1.2735, on the way to 1.2400-1.2270 thereafter.
Given the deteriorating economic (and political?) Eurozone back-story, we should not be surprised by acute-Euro weakness ahead.