Euro in Decline - Market Analysis for May 4th, 2010

Let's notice that the euro has pressed below the up trendline that originated in 2002, and cuts across the price axis this week at 1.3080. Today's plunge to a new bear phase low at 1.3020 has violated the trendline; however, in that this is a weekly chart, it remains to be seen if euro/dollar will close the week beneath 1.3080. If yes, then the euro should head still lower into the area of the Nov. 2008 to March 2009 lows, in the vicinity of 1.2800 down to 1.2400. In any case, this is a much uglier and more dangerous technical condition than we had heading into the weekend, when Europe and Greece were supposed to put loan mechanisms in place that also created a floor under Portugal, Spain, and who knows where else. Underlying the euro weakness is concern about Germany's committment, or lack thereof to the bailout plan.  As relatively strong as gold acts, the big picture of the euro creates strong headwinds for gold and the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), at least near term.