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Exiting Fixed Income into Equities


A very quiet day, but the sellers are MIA -- at least for the time being. The enclosed comparison chart perhaps sheds some light on what is going on - bond prices continue to press lower concurrent with bouyant (grinding higher) equity prices, which suggests that money is exiting fixed income into equities.

That said, purely from a technical perspective, the emini S&P 500 needs to accelerate to the upside out of its marginal new high pattern very soon; otherwise, the next bout of selling pressure that sends the e-SPZ down just 5-7 points (beneath 1232.50-1231.50) could inflict meaningful damage to the most recent upleg, off of the Nov. 30 upside pivot low at 1173.00.

With that in mind, the final hour of trading ahead of the weekend -- and release of China CPI data -- could inject some volatility into the indices, which are vulnerable to some technical pressure under 1231.50. If the e-SPZ is not "screaming" higher above 1240/42 late today, caution will be the watchword.

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