Ahead of this evening's earnings report, let's notice that Alcoa (AA) is trading just off of its multi-month lows in the vicinity of 8.45-8.21. This must contain any forthcoming price weakness to avert a press towards my next optimal downside target zone of 7.60/40.
Conversely, only a sustained climb above 9.05/10 will trigger initial signals that a near-term low has been established, with follow-through upside projected to test resistance at 10.00/10 next.
Botton line: Heading into earnings, AA is in the grasp of a powerful, dominant near- and intermediate-term downtrend. In the absence of a huge positive "miss," AA should head lower in sympathy with its current downtrends.