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Eye on UltraShort Treasuries


Although from a technical perspective my inclination is to add to our long model portfolio position in the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT), there is so much uncertainty and the potential for shocking unintended consequences resulting from whatever the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) say to do, or don't do, in the upcoming days.

That’s not to mention another expected dismal US Jobs Report on Friday that I think I will maintain my original long position and see what develops during the course of the next few days.

That said, if my technical work turns out to be an accurate "price guide" for the TBT, then after this pullback to 14.70/50, I will be expecting a resumption of strength that propels the price structure to new recovery highs 15.50/80 next.

If we retrofit the fundamentals to the price projection, then whatever the central bankers decide to do will impact the long end of the yield curve negatively, goosing interest rates on the long end for a change, while driving still lower the 3-month to 5-year portion of the curve.

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