GDX: A Power Keg Looking For a Spark?

In that today is Friday-- the last session of the week, it is interesting to note that the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which made a new 5-year low on Monday, has a chance to put in a weekly-upside reversal-- if it can close today above last week's close at 20.53.

Yes, the GDX has put in other weekly-upside reversal closes since its most recent meaningful rally peak at 31.35 on Aug 27, after which everyone was invalidated in a relentless trek to new lows.

That said, however, every new low since the Apr 17 low at 27.27 has not been confirmed by my intermediate-term momentum gauge, which "warns" us that with each successive-failed upside reversal and subsequent unconfirmed new low, the potential combustion for a powerful-upside reversal increases significantly.

The GDX is a power-keg that is looking for ignition. I don't know what the catalyst will be, but the light in the distance is looking more and more like a blow torch.