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Geopolitics and Friday's Jobs Report Impact 10-Year YIELD


Let's notice that 10-year YIELD has pivoted off of a test of its rising 200-day EMA (2.59%) for a second time (the first occurring on Feb 5 at 2.58%), setting up a possible double bottom in the 2.60% area.

That said, let's also notice that the 50-day EMA is down-sloping at 2.74% with the prior rally peak at 2.79%, off of the Feb test of the 200-day EMA.

In other words, any rally in 10-year YIELD will encounter heavy resistance at 2.75 to 2.80%, which must be hurdled and sustained to trigger a new, powerful upleg that should rapidly run towards a test of the Dec 31 high at 3.04%.

For that to happen, this Friday's Jobs Report will have to be very convincing-- that "it really was the weather" that slowed the economy, and that geopolitical risks really are on the back burner."

Otherwise, another loop down that breaks the 200-day EMA will send YIELD spiraling to 2.50% - 2.45% in a hurry.

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