Gold Losing Luster - Market Analysis for Feb 1st, 2008

The gold market is taking a big hit today, despite the weaker economic data that initially triggered a decline in the dollar closer to 1.5000 versus the Euro... Very interesting action, indeed, and not particularly gold-friendly, I might add. Let's take a look at the GDX (Market Vectors Gold Mining ETF)...

This morning the GDX violated key micro support at 50.00, which has triggered downside follow-through towards my next optimal target of 48.20-47.80, which will be near the rising 50-day moving average. Inability of the 50 DMA to contain the weakness will be an indication to me that the 4.5-5.0 cycle low expected in Dec-Jan likely was an inversion -- a cycle high instead. If that proves to be the case, then the GDX is in the early phase of a downdraft that should last 1-3 months. For the time being, let's see what happens if and when the GDX tests key support at 48.00.