Has 10-Year T-bond YIELD Started a New Upleg?
This morning's upside reversal in 10-year yield from 1.86% to 1.94% ended the correction off of Tuesday’s high at 1.99%, which failed to hurdle and sustain above the 2.3 year down trendline shown below (dashed line).
However, both my near and medium pattern and momentum work argue that today's reversal initiated a new upleg within the maturing intermediate-term base pattern in 10-year yield.
If my work proves reasonably accurate, then the current up-move in yield will hurdle the down trendline, and Tuesday’s high at 1.99% on the way above the psychologically important 2.00% barrier towards a revisit of the March high at 2.09% next.
Only a sudden downside reversal that breaks today's low at 1.86% will compromise the timing of the anticipated next upleg in yield.